Value This, Value That

April 21st Live Betting Live Chat

2010-04-21T18:47:00.000-04:00

4/21 Live Betting

April 20th Live Betting Live Chat

2010-03-02T23:08:00.004-05:00

4/20 Live Betting

Pac Thursday Live Chat

2010-02-25T19:38:00.000-05:00

Pac Thursday

2010 NBA All-Star Game Live Chat

2010-02-14T20:23:00.000-05:00

NBA ASG 2010

2010 NFL Conference Championships Live Chat

2010-01-20T22:33:00.001-05:00

2010 NFL Conference Championships

Live Betting Addiction (Monday 1/18)

2010-01-18T17:25:00.001-05:00

Live Betting Addiction (Monday 1/18)

Jazz-Nuggets Live Chat

2010-01-17T20:45:00.000-05:00

Jazz-Nuggets Live Chat

NFL Second Round Sunday Live Chat

2010-01-17T12:31:00.001-05:00

NFL Second Round Sunday

ASU-OSU, Cal-Washington Live Chat

2010-01-16T13:33:00.000-05:00

Arizona St.

NFL Wild Card Sunday Live Chat

2010-01-10T12:46:00.001-05:00

NFL Wild Card Sunday

NFL Wild Card Saturday Live Chat

2010-01-09T16:03:00.003-05:00

NFL Wild Card Saturday Live Chat

2009 NFL Week 17 Live Chat

2010-01-02T22:57:00.001-05:00

The no cursing rule remains in effect.

NFL Week 17 Live Chat

Carib Stupidity: Week 16 Picks

2009-12-26T13:05:00.000-05:00

Carib Stupidity: Week 15 Picks

2009-12-20T11:01:00.000-05:00

Carib Stupidity: Week 14 Picks

2009-12-13T13:12:00.002-05:00

Carib Stupidity: Week 13 Picks

2009-12-06T12:43:00.003-05:00

Carib Stupidity: Week 11 Picks

2009-11-19T20:37:00.001-05:00

Carib Stupidity: Week 10 Picks

2009-11-13T16:23:00.002-05:00

Carib Stupidity: Week 9 Picks

2009-11-08T13:05:00.001-05:00

Carib Stupidity: Week 8 Picks

2009-11-01T13:05:00.001-05:00

Carib Stupidity: Week 7 Picks

2009-10-25T13:05:00.000-04:00

Carib Stupidity: Week 6 Picks

2009-10-18T13:05:00.001-04:00

Carib Stupidity: Week 5 Picks

2009-10-11T13:05:00.001-04:00

Carib Stupidity: Week 4 Picks

2009-10-04T12:39:00.002-04:00

Two More Wins

2009-10-03T11:04:00.003-04:00

My guess for today's line (-132/+124), was almost dead on, as it opened at -133/+125. So we are left with:

de la Rosa (+125) @ Kershaw (-133)- 43.8%
Marquis (+116) @ Billingsley (-124)- 45.5%

The Rockies are right at 20.0%, 1 in 5, to win the division.

Colorado Rockies, You Are Ridiculous

2009-10-02T10:57:00.001-04:00

On Sunday morning, the Dodgers' magic number to win the NL West was 1. Here's what has transpired since:

Sunday
PIT (+166) beat LAD- 37.2%
COL (-180) beat STL- 63.6%

On Sunday morning, there was a 23.7% chance of the Rockies still being alive in the NLW race 24 hours later. This happened.

Monday
PIT (+154) beat LAD- 38.9%

On Sunday morning, there was a 9.2% chance of the Rockies still being alive in the NLW race 48 hours later. This happened.

Tuesday
SDP (+153) beat LAD- 39.1%
COL (-161) beat MIL- 60.9%

On Sunday morning, there was a 2.2% chance of the Rockies still being alive in the NLW race 72 hours later. This happened.

Wednesday
SDP (+115) beat LAD- 45.7%
COL (-191) beat MIL- 64.8%

On Sunday morning, there was a 0.6% chance of the Rockies still being alive in the NLW race 96 hours later. This happened.

Thursday
COL (-171) beat MIL- 62.4%

On Sunday morning, there was a 0.4% chance (1 in 247) of the Rockies still being alive right now. This happened.

Right now, tonight's game is -104/-104 at Pinnacle. Using my previous percentages for the Rockies winning the weekend games (44.0%, 44.7%), that puts Colorado at 9.5% to win the division.

Which means, finally, that the Rockies were approximately 1 in 2584 to win the NL West last Sunday morning. I don't think I'm being at all hyperbolic when I say that if they win the division it would be the most amazing thing that has ever happened.

Four More Wins

2009-10-01T06:33:00.003-04:00

Cook has been released as a -170 favorite today. The four-banger necessary for the Rockies to win the division now looks like this:

Cook -170 (vs. Parra)
Jimenez +110 (at Wolf)
de la Rosa +124 (at Kershaw)
Marquis +120 (at Kuroda)

After adjusting for juice those come in at 62.3%, 46.8%, 44.0%, and 44.7%, respectively, which brings us up to 5.7% overall.

Aaron Cook tries to get it to nearly 10% at 3:10pm this afternoon.

Here's What Needs To Happen

2009-09-30T09:20:00.006-04:00

Rockies (Hammel, -201) beat Brewers (Suppan, +185) tonight- 65.6%

+

Padres (Richard, +126) beat Dodgers (Garland, -134) tonight- 43.8%

+

Rockies (Cook, -190) beat Brewers (Parra, +182) tomorrow afternoon- 64.9%

+

Rockies (Jimenez, +110) beat Dodgers (Wolf, -118) Friday night- 46.8%

+

Rockies (de la Rosa, +124) beat Dodgers (Kershaw, -132) Saturday night- 44.0%

+

Rockies (Marquis, +120) beat Dodgers (Kuroda, -128) Sunday afternoon- 44.7%

=

There is about a 1.7% chance the Rockies win the NL West and the storyline of my 2009 MLB season changes dramatically.

(Tonight's lines are from Pinnacle, the rest I made up.)

Carib Stupidity: Week 3 Update

2009-09-28T10:59:00.002-04:00

ML: 16-14 (32 points)
JP: 12-18 (24 points)
VW: 9-21 (18 points)

Seventy picks remaining for each participant. Here's how often each contestant wins:

ML: 68.4%
JP: 21.4%
VW: 6.8%

Dead last odds:

VW: 63.4%
JP: 27.1%
ML: 6.0%

So yeah, it looks like going 1-9 when you were in bad shape to begin with in a contest where you win $5K if you go 0-10 was less than ideal.

(Thanks as always to xlsSports for help putting the sim together.)

This Is Getting Ridiculous

2009-09-27T19:15:00.003-04:00

In the Carib contest, since we have to pick so many games I've been filling a few games per week with totals that I can get at a better # than whatever is available at Pinny when I'm putting my picks in. This has gone really well:

What are the odds of that? Well, if you're getting 0.94 extra points on a total you should win about 53% of the time. So:

One in 84. Incredible.

Carib Stupidity: Week 3 Picks

2009-09-27T13:00:00.000-04:00

Switching up the style this week to ensure that these go 10-0:

Week 3 Donations

2009-09-24T12:39:00.002-04:00

Oakland Raiders to win AFC West, +2000 (3x, BetUS)
Sim: 12.1%

FO has Oakland at 6.2%. That's a pretty marginal edge at 20:1, until you consider that:

-FO loved the Chargers at the beginning of the year (11.3 wins, most in the NFL)
-They were not so fond of the Raiders (6.7 wins)
-They're only weighting the first two weeks of VOA at 25%, which is definitely on the low end of the spectrum
-FO is using a standard deviation of zero, meaning they're acting like they KNOW Oakland has a true talent DVOA of -10.6%, and that SD is at 24.0%; this hurts the Raiders' % dramatically

That's pretty much how you get from 6.2% to 12.1%. The argument that there's not value here would be a difficult one to make.

St. Louis Rams to win NFC West, +5000 (1.5x, VIP & BetUS)
Sim: 6.3%

The sliver of hope for the Rams was covered in the futures update post. The only NFCW with a positive DAVE is Seattle, and they're only one game ahead of STL. I'd also say that the fact that they haven't played a home game yet is overlooked, and I think there's a pretty good chance that it wasn't factored into the odds when BetUS put these together. Either way I think this is a good price.

2009 NFL Futures Week 2 Update

2009-09-23T20:35:00.004-04:00

To save time I'm not going to bother listing all their records (0-2).

St. Louis Rams to win NFC West, 5.83x to win 77.31x
Preseason % in sim (EV): 24.6% (+14.62x)
Current % in sim (EV): 6.1% (-0.76x)

I'd like to point out here that the Rams are one of only two teams (Vikings) that haven't played a home game yet. So the stage has been set for a historic run. It could definitely be worse, as the only 2-0 team in their division (SF) is currently 27th in DAVE. It could also be better, if St. Louis had won one of their first two games.

Tampa Bay Bucs to win NFC South, 4.46x to win 84.47x
Preseason % in sim (EV): 17.2% (+10.84x)
Current % in sim (EV): 3.5% (-1.35x)

The Bucs are not quite as fortunate, having already fallen two games behind both Atlanta and New Orleans. Despite remaining competitive in both their games, Tampa is only 27th in VOA. This is just not going well, let's move on.

Kansas City Chiefs to win AFC West, 3.35x to win 50.25x
Preseason % in sim (EV): 17.4% (+5.98x)
Current % in sim (EV): 8.1% (+0.99x)

Still +EV! Alright. KC's situation is similar to STL's, as the only 2-0 team in the AFCW (DEN) sucks. Also promising is the team that was a "lock" to take the division two weeks ago, San Diego, has stumbled out of the gate, posting a -14.4% DVOA in their first two games. There's still some hope here, although their schedule over the next five weeks (@PHI, vsNYG, vsDAL, @WAS, vsSD) is pretty ugly.

Cleveland Browns to win AFC North, 1x to win 17x
Preseason % in sim (EV): 11.6% (+1.09x)
Current % in sim (EV): 1.5% (-0.73x)

Minus-0.73x may not look impressive, but when you consider that I only risked 1x to begin with, it definitely is. The Steelers are only a game up on the Clowns, but Baltimore starting off 2-0 really kills this one.

Jacksonville Jaguars to win AFC South, 3.7x to win 33.33x
% in sim when bet was placed after Week 1 (EV): 23.0% (+4.81x)
Current % in sim (EV): 9.7% (-0.11x)

The loss to Arizona was rather devastating, that's a lot of EV to lose in just one game. They probably need to win @Houston this week and vs. the Titans at home in Week 4 to stay in the race.

Arizona Cardinals to finish last in NFC West, 0.79x to win 4.74x
Preseason % in sim (EV): 28.1% (+0.76x)
Current % in sim (EV): 15.7% (+0.08x)

Despite what the opening sentence of this post would indicate, the Cardinals are actually 1-1. San Francisco starting off 2-0 really helps, but the Rams will likely finish last to lose me two bets at once.

EV prior to start of season: +33.29x
Current EV: -1.88x

Carib Stupidity: Week 2 Update

2009-09-22T07:19:00.004-04:00

ML: 12-8 (24 points)
VW: 8-12 (16 points)
JP: 7-13 (14 points)

I'm still assuming half of our picks match up, so 75 picks remaining for each participant. Here's how often each contestant wins:

ML: 62.9%
VW: 19.2%
JP: 13.9%

Dead last odds:

JP: 48.9%
VW: 37.4%
ML: 9.3%

Whose idea was this again?

(Thanks as always to xlsSports for help putting the sim together.)

Carib Stupidity: Week 2 Picks

2009-09-20T13:30:00.001-04:00

Texans +6.5
Jets +3.5
Lions +9.5
CAR/ATL U43
Jaguars -3
Broncos -3
CLE/DEN O37
BAL/SD U40.5
Bears +3
Giants +3

Can't Stop Won't Stop

2009-09-16T20:16:00.003-04:00

Jacksonville Jaguars to win AFC South, +900 (3.704x, Bookmaker)

Thoughts:

-There was value in Jacksonville before the season began, as FO thought they were going to improve dramatically over last year and BM was offering a very generous price (+780 I believe)

-The Jaguars looked strong even in defeat in Week 1, posting a +10.6% VOA on the road against one of the better teams in the league (Indy)

-Losing on the road in a game where you were a seven point underdog really doesn't hurt your playoff odds that much, especially considering...

-The Titans lost, and...

-The Texans lost at home and looked like crap in the process

-Depending on how much you weight Week 1 performance, I have the Jaguars coming in between 22% and 26% to win the division in my sim

-They are +700/-800 at Matchbook, and the 7:1 isn't exactly liquid ($4)

-We are getting +900

-MJD is on my fantasy team

-I am addicted to NFL futures bets

I think that about covers it.

Week 2 Notes

2009-09-15T20:34:00.003-04:00

Slightly different format this week. The first line of text on each game is my initial reaction to the line. The second are my thoughts after checking out the consensus numbers at Wagerline and SIA. Fascinating stuff, I know.

OAK +3 @ KC- slight lean KC
-OAK is drawing a decent amount of action at WLine and SIA, and I am a huge Chiefs fan

HOU +6.5 @ TEN- strong lean HOU, this is disgusting, the Texans just got torn up by a rookie GQ model
-TEN is getting pounded, shocker

NE -4 @ NYJ- weak lean NYJ
-NE is about 65/35, should probably stay away here

CIN +9.5 @ GB- lean CIN
-GB is reasonably popular but this one never really excited me that much to begin with; possible Survivor pick though

MIN -9.5 @ DET- strong lean DET, AP is going to run for 700 yards
-MIN is getting slammed, what is the split action line on this game like 25?

NO +1 @ PHI- lean PHI, since no McNabb and Brees = Superman
-NO is drawing a lot of action, even though SIA has the line at Saints -3 (!)

CAR +6.5 @ ATL- fairly strong lean CAR, pretty easy to cover seven when the opposing QB is lock city for four turnovers
-ATL is not crazy public, we'll see how this one develops

STL +10 @ WAS- lean STL, expecting another strong showing
-STL is borderline, I guess WAS didn't look that great last week but come on it's the Rams

ARI +3 @ JAX- slight lean Jags, having this at a pk would be nice, I wish I had that idea a couple weeks ago
-Rizo is a bit popular at SIA, probably end up laying off

SEA +1 @ SF- slight lean SF but probably nothing
-SEA drawing a decent amount of action, I guess the wrong team is favored there, that's what they're telling me

TB +4.5 @ BUF- slight lean Bucs
-TB could round into a play, would have been nice if the Bills held on against NE but they still did look pretty good save for flipping McKelvin

CLE +3 @ DEN- lean CLE but the DEN W last week was fluky even to the mouthiest of breathers
-Won't be playing the Clowns I guess, these splits surprised me

BAL +3 @ SD- looks unplayable from here
-BAL is getting a lot of action but whatever

PIT -3 @ CHI- lean Bears, Cutler is so much worse than Orton
-92/8 at SIA, how'd they ever get 8?

NYG +3 @ DAL- if I don't even have a lean after staring at it for 15 seconds I guess it probably shouldn't be a play
-SNF game is pass city

IND -3 @ MIA- lean Fish, this is a stupid line
-IND is getting bombed, big thanks out to the oddsmakers for ruining my Monday night once again

Carib Stupidity: Week 1 Update

2009-09-14T22:30:00.000-04:00

ML: 6-4 (12 points)
VW: 3-7 (6 points)
JP: 3-7 (6 points)

For the sim, I assumed that we all have 52% win percentages, and half of our picks will be the same (so I told the sim there are only 80 picks left rather than 160). Here's how often each contestant wins:

ML: 52.1%
VW: 21.9%
JP: 21.7%

Dead last odds:

JP: 40.0%
VW: 39.8%
ML: 15.8%

What a disaster. I'm going to spend all day at work tomorrow trying to figure out some kind of error in the sim, but I don't think one exists.

Carib Stupidity: Week 1 Picks

2009-09-13T13:37:00.001-04:00

Dolphins +4
Chiefs +13
Bengals -4
Browns +4
MIN/CLE O39.5
NYJ/HOU O43.5
Tampa Bay +6
San Francisco +6
WAS/NYG U37.5
Buffalo +11

Small Addition

2009-09-13T10:33:00.003-04:00

Bucs to win NFC South, +1500 (0.556x)

Got this at +1200 at MB before Bookmaker released their line, then sold some of it back at -1000.

2009 NFL Props & Futures

2009-09-09T20:48:00.004-04:00

I don't really feel like explaining these, and I've already discussed them elsewhere anyway. I'm sure there will be a lot more of this nonsense over the next four months.

St. Louis Rams to win NFC West, +1326 (5.83x)

Tampa Bay Bucs to win NFC South, +1950 (3.9x)

Kansas City Chiefs to win AFC West, +1500 (3.35x)

Cleveland Browns to win AFC North, +1700 (1x)

Arizona Cardinals to finish LAST in NFC West, +600 (0.79x)

NFL Week 1 Breakdown

2009-09-06T16:18:00.003-04:00

We'll see how this goes. I suppose giving away all my secrets to my sworn enemies isn't the greatest of ideas. Whatever. The following thoughts apply to real plays, I'm obviously going to have to do all sorts of ridiculous nonsense in Carib Stupidity.

Thursday
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh
6/1 line: PIT -5
Current line: PIT -6
SIA: PIT 76%

The Titans won 13 games last year. I heard the Steelers were pretty good themselves. This number seems reasonable enough. Pass.

Early Sunday
Detroit @ New Orleans
6/1 line: NO -11.5
Current line: NO -13
SIA: NO 81%

This may have been interesting at 11.5, but I don't think catching 13 points against a team that went 8-8 last year is sufficiently ugly. This is the sort of game where the location makes a huge difference; if it's in Detroit and NO is favored by 6, they'd likely be receiving a lot more action than they are currently, despite the fact that it's essentially the same line.

Miami @ Atlanta
6/1 line: ATL -4
Current line: ATL -4
SIA: ATL 74%

This game does nothing for me. Both these teams were expected to suck last year, yet ended up winning 11 games. Both are expected to fall back a good deal in '09. The line indicates that they're pretty much equal in strength.

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
6/1 line: IND -7
Current line: IND -7
SIA: IND 80%

I think the days of playing games just because of gaudy consensus numbers are over. I guess this could theoretically round into a play though. The Jags are 25th in the ESPN Power Rankings, behind the Bengals and 49ers? What the hell is that about?

NY Jets @ Houston
6/1 line: HOU -4
Current line: HOU -4.5
SIA: HOU 84%

Eighty-four percent? I call BS.

Vikings @ Browns
6/1 line: MIN -3
Current line: MIN -3.5
SIA: MIN 93%

This is disgusting. You'd think people would be starting to lose faith in Favre after his performance down the stretch last year, but apparently the Vikings went from 18:1 to 12:1 to win it all at some books in Vegas when they signed him. Meanwhile, I believe he improved their FO projection by all of 0.2 wins (we'll see when they release their updated projections this week). Definite play, possibly a double.

Broncos @ Bengals
6/1 line: pk
Current line: CIN -3.5
SIA: CIN 80%

Pick'em, really? I guess this may have been bet up after some projections came out and people realized how bad Denver is going to be; FO has them winning the fewest games of anyone in the league. Pretty lopsided early action at SIA, and I'd imagine we'll be getting involved with Orton pretty frequently, but I don't see much of an angle here. Cincy isn't exactly a powerhouse, they won four flipping games last year.

Eagles @ Panthers
6/1 line: CAR -1
Current line: PHI -1
SIA: PHI 67%

I guess the way Delhomme finished up last year isn't doing him any favors, but this line looks about right to me.

Cowboys @ Bucs
6/1 line: DAL -3
Current line: DAL -6
SIA: DAL 89%

That June line is just outrageous. In a couple interviews I've heard the interviewer talk about how any of the non-Tampa teams could easily win that division, only to have Schatz stop them and say the Bucs could be right there as well. Despite having an O/U of only 5.5, FO actually has them finishing ahead of the Falcons, and only 1.1 games behind apparent favorite Carolina. Put it all together and I've got them at about 18% to win the South in my sim, and they're actually +1100 at Bookmaker, so maybe I should take action there. Anyway, I'll probably end up on Tampa here, although I'm not thrilled with the line movment, particularly it hitting six the other day.

Chiefs @ Ravens
6/1 line: BAL -8.5
Current line: BAL -13
SIA: BAL 91%

We'll have to see how the QB situation shakes out for KC, the recent move from 10.5 to 13 would indicate that Cassel is probably out. I really don't want to get involved with Thigpen/Croyle against that defense, but that's not exactly a good reason. We'll see.

Late Sunday
Rams @ Seahawks
6/1 line: SEA -7
Current line: SEA -9
SIA: SEA 89%

Pretty extreme splits at SIA, but Seattle is definitely not a team I'm looking to fade early in the season, and this line seems reasonable enough.

Redskins @ NY Giants
6/1 line: NYG -6
Current line: NYG -6.5
SIA: NYG 81%

Not a lot of public dogs in Week 1, huh. I guess this is sort of short, with the Giants expected to content for the NFC title and the Redskins thought to be around .500. This post would definitely be more interesting later in the week when I had given these games a bit more thought and there's more information out there (screw you, Wagerline).

49ers @ Cardinals
6/1 line: ARI -6.5
Current line: ARI -6.5
SIA: ARI 85%

Definitely looking to fade the Cardinals this year, since they are NOT the 12th best team in the league. Sure, the 9ers finished strong last year, but I'm thinking Arizona may have received a bit more press in January. As long as the consensus numbers remain strong this will likely be a play.

Sunday Night
Bears @ Packers
6/1 line: GB -3
Current line: GB -3.5
SIA: GB 60%

I guess this is the one potential favorite of the week. The Packers were definitely unlucky last year; the problem is that despite this FO has them finishing with a record (7.4-8.6) that agrees with their ESPN rank (17th), and is actually well under their O/U of nine. Still, if I can avoid over-thinking it, it's a 6-10 team giving up more than a FG against a 9-7 squad that brought in a big name QB.

Monday Night
Bills @ Patriots
6/1 line: NE -10
Current line: NE -10.5
SIA: NE 92%

You know, I didn't think much of this line at first, but now I'm reconsidering. Couldn't this number be like 13 and nobody would think anything of it?

Chargers @ Raiders
6/1 line: SD -6.5
Current line: SD -9
SIA: 86%

That June number is pretty outrageous. The current line isn't exactly short, but I think this one will still end up being a play. FO does love the Chargers, but they're not exactly alone in feeling that way.

Updated MLB Sim (08/30/09)

2009-08-30T11:09:00.004-04:00

Here; same disclaimers as before. The Rockies are pretty screwed, sad to say. One thing worth noting is that the chances of anyone that still has the Mets on their schedule will be somewhat underrated, since NYM is NOT a .511 team at this point. I guess I should incorporate injuries somehow. The Braves, Nationals and Marlins each face New York six time down the stretch.

Updated MLB Sim (08/28/09)

2009-08-28T17:51:00.000-04:00

Updated MLB playoff odds as of the morning of Friday, August 28 can be found here (thanks again, xlsSports). Numbers are based on a simulation of 2,500 iterations, with team strength being derived from preseason PECOTA/CHONE and in-season third-order W%, plus accounting for any trades that have been made.

Futures Snapshot: August 20

2009-08-20T17:06:00.004-04:00

The third installment in a series:

(click to enlarge)

A quick rundown, starting from the bottom:

TJU: Although I'm not entirely convinced it was -EV, this was probably unnecessary. That being said, I intend to do something similar again next year. It's 1/3 of a unit, I'll allow myself one or two of these per season.

Athletics, Indians: These were forces. You can tell by the number of units I risked on them; if I had felt strongly enough about them to justifiably play them, I would've played them for more, if that makes sense. Before the season started I wanted to make sure I had a good amount of futures action going, which is not exactly bulletproof logic.

Mariners: Good process, bad results. A couple weeks after I placed these Seattle was +270/-400 to win the ALW at MB, unfortunately we're living in the bad 75% where the freaking Angels are on pace to score 936 runs.

Nationals: Odds I will have futures action on the Nats next year: YES -5000, NO +15000

Chipper: Still think this was good value at 80:1. Larry picked an unfortunate time to potentially hit under .324 (and WAY under .324) for the first time since 2005.

Brewers: Again, I was getting better than fair market odds on this, which is tough to argue with.

Dodgers: This was an excellent spot. I really hope I'm not rewarded for taking advantage of obvious value here.

Yankees: Still not much explanation necessary here, these were (and are) great odds.

Miggy: Obviously I'm taking a wild guess with the current odds on this one. Also obvious: this was an awesome bet.

Cardinals: Here is an approximate graph, which I just made in paint (looks like it was done professionally, I know), of the value available in futures odds throughout the course of the season:
I put a bit of a bump in the middle of April because I think people underestimate how important being a few games up on your competition in the standings is, even in April.

The STL/NYY lines at SportsBetting may seem like unusually good opportunities, but in reality something very similar happened last year. I only ended up breaking even on them, but I got great value with the Brewers (S'Bett), Rockies (Carib) and Cubs (BetUS) in late August and early September. Things can change really quickly at this time of year, and there's usually at least one book that's slow to react. Worth keeping in mind in the coming weeks. I didn't (seriously) try to portray it, but there may be some excellent opportunities in October as well.

Rockies: Great odds. The first bet I made this year will likely end up making or breaking my 2009 MLB wagering campaign. Go team.

This Doesn't End Well

2009-08-18T19:44:00.005-04:00

Cards to win NL Central, EV (risk 10.333x, SportsBetting)
Yanks to win AL East, -160 (risk 10.218x, SportsBetting)

Originally pointed out by Jonny, these were placed on Sunday and originally posted on Monday. The current SportsBetting odds (they were finally adjusted Tuesday afternoon) are shown above. I don't think these wagers require a whole lot of explanation; teams with six (Cardinals) and seven (Yankees) game leads with about 45 games left in the year are generally in pretty good shape to win the division. And indeed, I just ran a sim through games of 8/17, and STL came in at 89.6%, while NYY was 90.5%.

I have no plans to hedge either of these in the near future.

Darn

2009-07-21T21:29:00.001-04:00

WLOTYN

2009-07-10T01:35:00.004-04:00

Horrific.

Giving It Away

2009-07-07T12:06:00.003-04:00

Pretend for a second that you don't know what you do know. How could you possibly react to these lines except "FREE MONEY"?

2009 MLB First Half Recap

2009-07-05T23:02:00.006-04:00

I'm not even going to attempt to catch up on the last month. Whatever.

YTD: 180-199-3, +7.572x
Sides: 155-173, +7.499x
Totals: 25-26-3, +0.073x

YTD Graph

Sides Pythag: 48.5%, +17.438x
Totals Pythag: -0.5 runs (-.01 R/G)

I have basically been unlucky by 10 units on sides, and am right where I should be with the totals. I was hoping I'd have more to bitch about regarding the latter, but apparently not.

Home sides: +2.869x
Away sides: +4.630x

Interesting.

Percentage of Matchbook plays offered (rather than accepted): 82%
Units lost if every play had been accepted: 2.128 (projects to 4.256 over a full year)

This was not nearly as disastrous while I was driving 4,700 miles as I had expected, dropping only from 84% to 82%.

Units lost on Nationals, by day

Throw in another $33 for this and I'm really in a hole here. They haven't been too bad over the last 2.5 weeks; after starting off 18-46 (.281), they've gone on a tear, winning six of their last 15. (.400). I was 12-39 (.235; wow) and 5-6 (.455) betting on them in those two time frames, respectively.

Worst Tease of the Year?

2009-07-05T20:34:00.002-04:00

The Man Himself

2009-06-19T18:26:00.001-04:00

### John Lannan

2009-06-11T09:36:00.002-04:00

This was totally accidental. It is also awesome, for a few reasons.

Futures Snapshop: June 10

2009-06-10T14:18:00.007-04:00

Haven't done this in a little over a month. Sides have done great during that period. Futures? Not so much:

(click to enlarge)

The Mariners have been the main problem here: Seattle has gone 14-21 since May 2. That's not even that bad, but sadly the Rangers have gone 23-13 over that span, opening up a five game lead on the M's.

As usual, I didn't really know what to do with the MVP props. Miggy still has a decent shot, but suddenly his projected Triple Crown numbers aren't all that impressive, at .337/31/111. Chipper has missed nine games (shocker), so he won't have the counting numbers (never does), but he is hitting .335, and would likely be the guy the writers credit if the Braves somehow win the division. Other than Francoeur, of course.

Bases Roundup: 6/9

2009-06-10T14:15:00.001-04:00

LAA/TBR Over 8 (Weaver/Shields, +104)- LAA 4, TBR 3

With the bases loaded, one out, and the score 4-2 in the seventh, Pena hit a shot but right at Morales, who stepped on first for the easy double play. That was probably the difference between a win and a loss, both for the Rays and on the total. Zobrist did homer an inning later, and Dillon walked to lead off the ninth, but was eventually erased on a game-ending double play by Crawford. Weaver only allowed two runs despite walking four; his ERA now stands at 2.31, while his QERA is 4.20.

Rockies (Hammel, +128) @ Brewers (Looper)- COL 3, MIL 2

Looper was excellent, with seven Ks and no walks, but ran into trouble in the seventh, when the Rockies put across all three of their runs. Hammel, who came over from the Rays, has quietly put together a pretty solid year, with a 3:1 K:BB and 4.42 QERA in 54 innings.

Astros (Moehler, +119) vs. Cubs (Lilly)- CHC 7, HOU 1

Moehler was terrible, which is nothing new; unfortunately his ERA didn't quite get up to seven (6.95). He is definitely going to be a play going forward, as his QERA is very respectable (4.66); his main problem has been a .375 BABiP. Lilly was okay in six shutout innings -- he was fortunate all 11 fly balls stayed in the park -- as his ERA dropped all the way down to 3.00.

Padres (Young, +185) @ Dodgers (Billingsley)- LAD 6, SDP 4

Not a good start for Chris Young; he allowed four homers in just five innings, while only walking one. The thing about Billingsley is that his pitch count tends to get up there pretty early; he's only made it through seven in one of his last five starts. Unfortunately that's not terribly helpful, since the LA bullpen is pretty good in its own right.

Bases Roundup: 6/8

2009-06-09T00:45:00.004-04:00

Rays (Sonnanstine, +153) @ Yankees (Pettitte)- NYY 5, TBR 3

This is not an acceptable line, Andy Sonnanstine: 7IP, 6H, 5R, 2BB, 1K, 4HR. He was fortunate that three of the four homers were solo shots, as the Rays did a good job of converting the rare balls the Yankees didn't hit over the fence into outs. I remember thinking Pettitte looked terrible when I was watching this, but he ended up with a decent enough line, striking out seven and walking three over six.

Blue Jays (Janssen, +146) @ Rangers (Feldman)- TOR 6, TEX 3

Feldman had good surface numbers coming into this one, which was funny, since he's not actually good at all. That finally came through, with a 2:2 K:BB ratio and two homers served up to Lind over six frames. Janssen came into the game having struck out only four in 17 innings, but broke out of that slump, notching six Ks over 5.1.

Bases Recap: Week 9

2009-06-09T00:43:00.004-04:00

Week 8: 18-17-1, +5.393x

YTD: 135-151-3, +2.354x
YTD Sides: 113-130, +0.492x
YTD Totals: 22-21-3, +1.862x

That, friends, is a lot of green. It's been quite a journey to get there, but I'm finally back above zero.

YTD Pythag: .493 W%, +20.261x

Great week for the Pythag, picking up over 11 units. Would've been a huge week if I was a bit better than 2-5 in one run games.

Percentage of Matchbook plays offered (rather than accepted): 84%
Units lost if every play had been accepted: 1.643 (projects to 4.746 over a full year)

I'd expect that 84% to continue to drop over the next couple weeks.

Worst Loss of Week 9:

For whatever reason it seems like a horrible loss at the end of what could've been a huge day hurts that much more. At least by the end of the crappy days you're resigned to losing. This was just awful.

Bases Roundup: 6/7

2009-06-08T13:37:00.004-04:00

Nationals (Stammen, +104, double) vs. Mets (Livan)- NYM 7, WAS 0

No value. New York put five on the board in the first, on a wonderful combination of three hits, two walks, two wild pitches and a sac fly. That was more than enough for Livan, who comically got through seven shutout innings with a 4:4 K:BB. Feliciano, Parnell and K-Rod pitched the last two with a similarly brilliant two strikeouts and two walks; the Nationals failed to muster an extra base hit all game.

Indians (Huff, +109) @ White Sox (Colon)- CLE 8, CHW 4

It can't be that often that a pitcher serves up back-to-back homers in two separate innings in the same game, but that's what Bartolo pulled off in this one, giving up bombs to Gimenez and Valbuena in the second and Victor and Choo in the fifth. Huff had another underwhelming outing, only getting 15 outs with a 3:3 K:BB and a 3-R HR allowed to Alexei, but Cleveland's bullpen was solid in preserving what was an 8-3 lead after 5.5 innings.

Rockies (Ubaldo, +124) @ Cardinals (Pineiro)- COL 7, STL 2

Quite a weekend for Colorado, which swept four in St. Louis and added 4.645 units to my bottom line in the three games I had them. They never really broke through against Pineiro in this one, scoring only three runs despite 11 baserunners during his five innings. That was enough for Ubaldo though, who had one of his best outings, with a 9:1 K:BB over eight frames.

Bases Roundup: 6/6

2009-06-08T13:34:00.006-04:00

Royals (Hochevar, +154) @ Blue Jays (Richmond)- KCR 6, TOR 2

Yet another Richmond fade, and he came through for us in this one, giving up five before getting pulled in the fifth after a two-run homer by Teahen and a bases clearing triple by Bloomquist, of all people. An even more surprising development was Hochevar making it into the seventh while holding Toronto to two runs, although his peripherals didn't exactly scream "Zachary Wheeler".

MIN/SEA Over 8 (Blackburn/Washburn, +107)- SEA 2, MIN 1

Not quite. Blackburn continues to get by with smoke and mirrors -- 7IP, 1R, 1BB, 1K, 9:11 GB:FB -- but Washburn was legitimately good, striking out six against one walk in six innings. Of course, Blackburn's success is partially explained by the Mariners' offensive ineptitude, as nobody did much except Ichiro, who was 3/4 and had a hand in both runs.

Nationals (Lannan, +108) vs. Mets (Maine)- WAS 7, NYM 1

An Aaron Laffey-esque start by Lannan, who made it through all nine despite a 2:3 K:BB. That becomes a bit easier when you get 19 ground balls, and your team turns five double plays behind you; kind of amazing, since the Mets only had seven baserunners all game. Dunn hit his 17th in the first to put Washington up 3-0, and Dukes and Johnson added some insurance against Maine, who gave up all seven in a pretty rough outing.

Rockies (Cook, +125, double) @ Cardinals (Wellemeyer)- COL 10, STL 1

A couple bad pitches to Stewart doomed Wellemeyer, as the Colorado second baseman finished the night with 10 total bases and five RBIs. Cook had a classic Aaron Cook outing, getting 15 ground balls against only six FBs, while walking just one. The strikeouts have always been low, but he should be okay as long as he continues to keep the walks down.

ARI/SDP Under 7.5 (Scherzer/Correia, -113)- SDP 6, ARI 4

This was looking fantastic until the sixth (2-0 D'Backs through five), which happened to be exactly when I started watching. That's when Scherzer was pulled, and Rosales gave up two hits, although he did manage to get a couple outs in the process. That's two more than Daniel Schlereth recorded; he walked two of the four batters he faced, also hitting one and allowing a single. Zavada then came in and gave up yet two more singles, as the Padres scored six runs in the inning to put this one right over.

Bases Roundup: 6/5

2009-06-06T01:17:00.003-04:00

Rockies (de la Rosa, +165, double) @ Cardinals (Wainwright)- COL 11, STL 4

Wainwright was excellent, only allowing two runs before walking Stewart to lead off the seventh. Reyes, Motte, and Todd were a different story entirely, as they combined to allow nine Colorado runs to cross in that frame as the Rockies took an 11-1 lead. De la Rosa was solid, striking out seven over 6.2, although he did allow homers to Pujols and Molina.

Nationals (Martis, -106) vs. Mets (Redding)- NYM 3, WAS 1

Martis walked four in five innings while only striking out one, and remains 5-1 despite an ugly 27:27 K:BB ratio. The Washington bullpen was actually good in this one, holding the Mets scoreless in the sixth through ninth, but Hanrahan shockingly couldn't make it through a second inning without giving up a pair. The Nats did get 10 guys on base, but stranded seven of them and hit into a couple DPs. Guzman got to second with one out in the eighth, but Zimmerman and Dukes couldn't get him home.

Bases Roundup: 6/4

2009-06-04T17:49:00.007-04:00

First, a Miggy update:

"The Tigers and Miguel Cabrera are hopeful he won't miss much time, if any, after the slugging first baseman left Thursday afternoon's 6-3 loss to the Red Sox with a pulled left hamstring.

As much as the sight of Cabrera pulling up on the basepaths could have been a nightmare, team officials and Cabrera seemed calmer about it after the game.

"Right now, I feel better," Cabrera said. "We'll see how I feel tomorrow. Hopefully, I feel good. If I feel good, I feel I can play tomorrow.""

A true warrior.

Pirates (Ohlendorf, +117) vs. Mets (Pelfrey)- PIT 11, NYM 6

This went a bit better than the last Pelfrey fade. He didn't make it out of the fourth, giving up nine runs while walking four in 3 2/3. Ohlendorf didn't pitch very well either, but Pittsburgh's bullpen was solid in 4.2 innings of work. Andrew McCutchen, filling in for the departed McLouth and making his major league debut, was 2/4 with a walk and three runs scored.

Athletics (Anderson, +156, double) @ White Sox (Buehrle)- OAK 7, CHW 0

Anderson got hit around in Texas last week, but this was his third solid start in his last four outings. And, while it's not exactly Murderer's Row, this was probably the best of the bunch: 7IP, 6H, 0R, 0BB, 4K. Buehrle was mediocre through eight, and the A's really blew it open with three against Dotel in the ninth. Giambi homered for the second straight game, and Holliday had another solid day, 2/3 with a double and a walk.

Royals (Meche, +157) @ Rays (Shields)- TBR 3, KCR 2

Upton's two-run homer in the eighth was the game changer, but the Royals were lucky to even have the lead prior to that AB. Meche allowed 11 baserunners in six innings, including a Crawford solo HR, yet managed to hold the Rays to just that single run. Shields was much better, with an 8:0 K:BB in eight innings, and the only damage coming on a Billy Butler two-run double in the third. Upton's homer was only his third of the season, and first since May 16.

Nationals (Zimmermann, -125, double) vs. Giants (Johnson)- SFG 5, WAS 1

I still haven't seen a side angle of the called third strike to Dunn with the bases loaded and two outs in the eighth, but despite what Gameday indicates I still think it was low. Two Ns' brilliant performances will be overshadowed in all the "300" excitement: 6IP, 3H, 2R, 0BB, 7K, 0HR, 8:3 GB:FB. It just so happened that all three hits were in the second, when the Giants pushed two runs across. Johnson only struck out two in six innings, but allowed just one (unearned) run.

Rockies (Hammel, +154) @ Astros (Wandy)- COL 10, HOU 3

Rodriguez had his third rough outing in a row, surrendering seven runs over five. He did strike out seven, but that's less impressive when you give up homers to Atkins (twice), Spilborghs, and Hawpe. Hammel pitched well, making it through seven with a 4:2 K:BB while allowing only two runs.

Reds (Harang, +178) @ Cardinals (Carpenter)- STL 3, CIN 1

This was about as thoroughly as two guys can dominate an entire game. Carpenter pitched a CG, allowing only three hits and not walking anybody. And then there's that Pujols guy, who provided all of St. Louis' offense with a two-run homer in the third and an RBI double in the sixth. Harang was quite good against non-Pujols opponents, but certainly no match for those two.

Nationals (Detwiler, +105) vs. Giants (Cain)- SFG 4, WAS 1

They only made it through 5+ in this one before the rain came once again, but in reality the result very likely would've been the same if they'd gone the full nine. Cain had one of his better starts, with seven Ks over five; despite his low ERA, his strikeouts were actually down this year coming into this start, to 6.2 K/9. Detwiler was decent enough, but ran into trouble in the fifth, giving up five hits, including two doubles.

Bases Roundup: 6/3

2009-06-04T13:55:00.000-04:00

Indians (Lee, -109) @ Twins (Swarzak)- CLE 10, MIN 1

Swarzak controlled the strike zone but allowed nine hits over four, including a Jhonny Peralta three-run homer in the third, only his second of the year. Lee was excellent once again, allowing just one run over eight innings. He is now 3-6 on the year; in some strange sense, Cliff Lee:2009 :: Chad Billingsley:2008. I guess Haren fits into that category as well.

Athletics (Outman, +126) @ White Sox (Richard)- OAK 5, CHW 3
OAK/CHW Over 9 (Outman/Richard, +127)- OAK 5, CHW 3

It would be interesting to do an EV graph for this combination of bets. It was 5-3 A's after 4.5 innings, at which point I was guaranteed at least 1-1, with probably a 60% chance of a sweep. As the game went along, Oakland's win probability went up, while the over's obviously went down; sadly, the latter's fall was a lot larger than the former's ascent. The A's are finally hitting a bit, with three homers in this one, including Giambi's seventh of the year. One of Outman's three runs allowed was unearned, which allowed his ERA to stay above three.

Padres (Young, -103) vs. Phillies (Happ)- PHI 5, SDP 1

Happ is now 4-0 with a 2.48 ERA in 40 innings, which is rather surprising. Young has had a disappointing campaign, with a poor 49:34 K:BB ratio in 68.2 innings. Adrian Gonzalez (0/2 with a walk) didn't hit a home run for the first time since last Friday.

Orioles (Bergesen, +121) @ Mariners (Vargas)- SEA 3, BAL 2

Scott and Huff both had nice games, combining for 5/8 with a double and a homer, but the rest of the offense didn't do much against Vargas. It was 2-2 after six, and stayed that way until the ninth, when a one out triple by Gutierrez caused Johnson to intentionally walk the bases loaded, which didn't matter when Beltre singled in the winning run.

D'Backs (Garland, +185) @ Dodgers (Billingsley)- LAD 1, ARI 0

A 9:4 K:BB in six innings got Billingsley out of there (111 pitches); unfortunately LA's bullpen isn't bad either. The D'Backs put runners on first and third in the eighth against Troncoso (TJU was prominently involved), but Montero grounded sharply into a 6-4-3 DP. Somebody on ESPN (I think) listed Garland as a guy who could possibly get to 300 wins the other day; I laughed.

No

2009-06-04T13:51:00.002-04:00

Bases Roundup: 6/2

2009-06-03T13:52:00.006-04:00

Pirates (Duke, +143) vs. Mets (Santana)- PIT 3, NYM 1

Duke somehow made it through seven innings without striking anybody out, which is quite an accomplishment. Santana was cruising through four, but Jaramillo hit a solo homer in the fifth, and Johan gave up four more hits in the sixth. This was the fourth time this season the Mets have scored only one run in a Santana start.

Nationals (Stammen, +140) vs. Giants (Lincecum)- WAS 10, SFG 6

Lincecum was decent enough (certainly better than Stammen), and San Francisco had a 5-4 lead going into the eighth. But then the Nats exploded against Howry and Valdez for six runs to take a 10-5 lead. Dukes was 1/4 with a double, walk, and two Ks in his return from the DL.

LAA/TOR Over 8 (Saunders/Halladay, +108)- TOR 6, LAA 4

I love this line from Saunders: 5.1IP, 0BB, 4K...6R. Halladay was awesome, striking out 14 in another complete game, but the Angels managed to push across four in the seventh on three singles, a walk, a wild pitch, and two sac flies to put this one over.

Braves (Kawakami, -109) vs. Cubs (Wells)- ATL 6, CHC 5

This was quite a game to follow on the Yankee Stadium out of town scoreboard. Hope was kept alive when they put across three in the eight to close it to 5-3, especially with the mediocre Gregg coming in to close it out. Atlanta's ninth inning rally was rather hilarious: Anderson reached on a wild pitch after striking out, and then with two down Francoeur connected to tie it. The Braves rallied in each of the next two innings, but didn't score until a 12th inning single by Chipper knocked in Escobar.

Indians (Huff, +163) @ Twins (Slowey)- MIN 4, CLE 3

Mauer is absurd: 3/3 with a homer and walk. He's now hitting .431/.516/.873, and has been worth $13.2MM in just 126 PA. Huff had his best outing yet, with five Ks and no walks in five frames, but came away with the loss. Asdrubal Cabrera injured his shoulder and has been placed on the DL, joining Rafael Betancourt, Grady Sizemore, Anthony Reyes, Aaron Laffey, Joe Smith, Travis Hafner, Scott Lewis, and Jake Westbrook. Good times.

Athletics (Mazzaro, +127) @ White Sox (Colon)- OAK 5, CHW 0

Nice debut for Vinny, who took a shutout into the seventh, at least if you ignore the 1:4 K:BB ratio. Colon finally got hit a little, but fortunately his ERA stayed low (3.75), since three of the five runs he gave up were unearned, thanks to a Wilson Betemit error to lead off the fifth.

D'Backs (Haren, +112) @ Dodgers (Wolf)- LAD 6, ARI 5

Worst loss of Week 9 nominee #1. Haren was great, and TJU hit a grand slam to put Arizona up 5-0 in the second. Unfortunately the rest of the team can't really compare to those two, and apparently Schlereth was getting squeezed by Bucknor.

What's This Strange Color?

2009-06-03T03:54:00.003-04:00

Bases Roundup: 6/1

2009-06-02T00:46:00.003-04:00

Pirates (Snell, -101) vs. Mets (Livan)- PIT 8, NYM 5

Snell got hit around in the second and third, but managed to make it through six with a stellar 2:5 K:BB ratio. Hernandez allowed three runs, but they would've been in good shape had Putz not allowed four hits and a walk in the eighth while failing to record an out. He has been horrible for the Mets; his K:BB of 6.3 in '07 is down to 1.0 in '09, and he's lost a mile and a half on his FB from last year.

Indians (Sowers, +160) vs. Yankees (Joba)- NYY 5, CLE 2

You're not going to win many games that Jeremy Sowers starts; you're also not going to win very often when your pitching staff combines for 11 walks. So when both of those things happen, +160 isn't looking very good anymore. Sowers left after walking the bases loaded with nobody out in the sixth, a jam Aquino miraculously escaped without allowing a run. But then he walked the bases full in the following inning, and they weren't as fortunate this time, with the Yankees opening up a 5-1 lead. Joba pitched well, increased his velocity as the game went on, and made the night's #1 web gem when he dove to catch a Kelly Shoppach bunt attempt in the fifth.

Rockies (Cook, +123) @ Astros (Oswalt)- HOU 4, COL 1

Could've passed this; should've passed this. Oswalt shut the Rockies down through seven, and Lee's two-run homer in the sixth provided some insurance the Houston bullpen didn't end up needing. Tulo is now hitting .221/.313/.387.

Athletics (Cahill, +135) @ White Sox (Colon)- CHW 6, OAK 2

At least Holliday has started hitting a bit; with a double and a homer in this one he's now up to .275/.368/.440. Okay I guess that's not really all that impressive, but it's better than .223/.270/.351. Cahill was decent enough into the sixth, but Breslow and Casilla fell apart in the eigth, allowing Chicago to put four runs across.

PHI/SDP Under 8 (Blanton/Correia, +109)- PHI 5, SDP 3

Eight?? Adrian Gonzalez hit HR #21, to the opposite field as usual. Blanton was good again, but Correia didn't hold up his end of the bargain, allowing four runs while not making it out of the fifth. Luckily the San Diego bullpen saved the day -- or the push, at least -- with 4.2 innings of one-run ball. It looks like Lidge is going to be just fine, although his ERA will likely stay quite high all season.

D'Backs (Buckner, +157) @ Dodgers (Kuroda)- ARI 3, LAD 2

Arizona was cruising along until the ninth, when Pena put the tying run on base with one out. And this was the mayor of Pierrewood on deck. He couldn't get Pierre out (who can?), but Pena managed to retire Hoffman and Loretta to strand Furcal at third as the tying run. I doubt this is the last we'll see of Billy Buckner.

Assigning the Blame: Weeks 1-8

2009-05-31T22:30:00.005-04:00

Some random records from the first eight weeks of MLB wagering:

That last row is absolutely digusting, I'm 1-6 on big plays on the Nats, 4-9 with everyone else. Since "doubles" are actually only "one point fives", flat betting everything would've saved me 4.617 units, which would put me slightly postitive on the season. Oh well.

Here's how I've done when wagering on each team:

There are seven teams I haven't played all year: Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Rangers (interesting), Cubs, Dodgers, and the Cardinals. Of the 23 teams I've bet on, I'm plus on 15, while only down on eight. I've passed the Nats eight times, and they're 4-4 in those games. Figures.

Here's how I've done on each SP I've sided with at least three times:

I've dropped over 15 units on Cabrera and Lannan; that is incredible. With the demise of Cabrera, de la Rosa is now Lannan's biggest competition for the top spot, and considering he's -140something every time he pitches at home I think he's got a good shot at getting there. It's sad; I was so excited about Brett Anderson coming into the year, and that has gone unbelievably poorly. Six of the bottom seven pitchers are Rockies or Nationals.

The best part about Pavano is he's still only "5-4, 5.29", despite the 50:13 (!) K:BB in 63 innings; I think he's still a viable option going forward. I didn't expect to see Outman and Cahill so high, or that I've actually won a few bucks on the A's this season. It's also absolutely hysterical that Martis comes in at #4.

One entertaining thing I'll be able to do with this is see how both the # of times I've bet on each of these guys and their results predict how often I'm on them in the next two months. I think the answer to that is obvious, but I'm looking forward to "proving" it anyway.

Bases Recap: Week 8

2009-05-31T22:27:00.004-04:00

Week 8: 21-18-0, +4.878x

YTD: 117-134-2, -3.039x
YTD Sides: 96-116, -6.763x
YTD Totals: 21-18-2, +3.724x

Picked up a couple units on both sides and totals this week, which is quite rare. Up to 53.85% on totals; getting there.

YTD Pythag: .471 W%, +8.910x

Exact same W% as last week. This projects to +28.958x over a full season, for whatever that's worth.

Percentage of Matchbook plays offered (rather than accepted): 86%
Units lost if every play had been accepted: 1.461 (projects to 4.748 over a full year)

This also held the same pace. Exciting.

Worst Loss of Week 8:

No unusually bad losses this week, although there were two rather absurd wins. I wish this post was this boring every Monday.

Bases Roundup: 5/31

2009-05-31T19:50:00.003-04:00

Indians (Pavano, +124) vs. Yankees (Hughes)- CLE 5, NYY 4

An upcoming post will justify my obsession with Pavano, if that's even a strong enough word. I'm going to be in Cleveland a in a couple weeks (road trip!), and am going to buy at least one PAVANO 44 shirt, if not a few. He was solid once again in this one, striking out four and walking none while only giving up a two-run bomb to Teix before getting pulled with one out in the eighth. Michael Kay went on and on about how Wedge was insane to take Pavano out after only 89 pitches, since he'd been doing so well, but really it made sense to have Raffy L face the lefty Damon, and Pavano probably wasn't going to stay in for Texeira to take him deep again anyway.

It may not have been the right move, but it was certainly justifiable, which went right over Kay's head. Wedge's plan ended up kind of backfiring, with Teixeira tying it at four with a two-run double (nice game for him). It ended well though, with Peralta lining one down the LF line with Crowe at second and one out in the bottom of the ninth to win it.

Marlins (Volstad, +123) @ Mets (Maine)- NYM 3, FLA 2

This was a Maine fade, which really looked brilliant after he threw six shutout innings before leaving the game with a stomach virus. Putz tried to blow it in the eighth (he is terrible; 28.1IP, 18BB, 19K; hurt?), but was pulled before that happened, with Parnell coming in and limiting the damage before K-Rod struck out the side in the ninth. Hanley was 3/4, and is quietly putting together another stellar year, hitting .330/.406/.553, with an impressive +3.0 UZR. Ramirez maturing into an excellent defender is kind of like Mauer starting to hit the ball over the fence, in that it essentially creates the perfect player.

Nationals (Lannan, +128) @ Phillies (Moyer)- PHI 4, WAS 2

Willingham was pretty much the entire offense, hitting solo homers off both Moyer and Condrey. Moyer has a rare effective start, with a 4:0 K:BB ratio in six one-run innings. The Nationals have won 26.5% of the baseball games they have played this season.

White Sox (Danks, +164) @ Royals (Greinke)- CHW 7, KCR 4

I guess this is considered a bad start for Greinke at this point: 7IP, 8H, 4R, 0BB, 7K, 0HR, 9:5 GB:FB. Despite the Royals' ace getting shelled, it was tied going into the ninth, when Bale allowed a couple White Sox to get on before Cruz came in and allowed those two to score, plus one more.

Athletics (Braden, +146) @ Rangers (Millwood)- OAK 5, TEX 4

Adam Kennedy homered twice, which didn't really make a whole lot of sense. That's actually the third multi-HR game of his career, but the first since '02. Braden was pitching very well before running into trouble in the seventh, and then Wuertz and Bailey conveniently blew the rest of what was a 4-0 lead in the eighth. But Kennedy saved the day with his second bomb in the ninth, giving this game the exact same scoring pattern (4-0, 4-4, 5-4) as the NYY-CLE game.

Rockies (de la Rosa, -143) vs. Padres (Gaudin)- SDP 5, COL 2

Of the Rose did not pitch well, and saw his record fall to 0-6. It's really hilarious that he's still laying serious chalk at this point, especially with Gaudin totally shutting down the Rockies' offense (6.1IP, 0BB, 9K). The Rockies have now won 40.8% of their games this year, which seems way, way too high.

Giants (Sanchez, +130) vs. Cardinals (Wainwright)- SFG 5, STL 3

I really don't know what happened to Sanchez; I (and others) expected him to have a big year, but he's been a huge disappointment. The Ks are still there; in fact, they're up, to 45 in 47.1 innings. But the walks are totally unacceptable, 6.5 per nine. Anyway, he didn't even make it out of the fifth in this one, but the San Francisco offense erupted for five (!) runs, taking the lead for good in the seventh on an Aurilia solo shot.

Bases Roundup: 5/30

2009-05-31T00:19:00.003-04:00

At least the Cavs won, right?

Orioles (Guthrie, +125) vs. Tigers (Verlander)- DET 6, BAL 3

Guthrie struck out 10 over six, but gave up solo homers to Granderson and Clete and another RBI single in the fourth. The real problem was that all the Ks helped his pitch count get up to 113 through six, and Matt Albers gave up three runs in relief of him. Verlander pitched worse than average by his lofty standards, but still came away with the W. Wieters was 2/4 with a double and a triple; surprising, I thought he was a bust.

Indians (Carmona, +163) vs. Yankees (Sabathia)- NYY 10, CLE 5

When I was casually talking to my father last night I predicted the Indians would lose this game by 10 runs (this is when I realized they'd almost certainly end up being a play), so at least they beat my spread. Carmona got a lot of ground balls...except for the two homers he served up to Posada and Swisher. He also walked three against just two Ks in four innings; they probably need to get him out of the rotation in the near future, it's just not working.

Royals (Meche, +101) vs. White Sox (Buehrle)- CHW 5, KCR 3

Meche was excellent (his counterpart wasn't bad either), but the Kansas City bullpen couldn't hold Chicago's potent offense down. Cruz was ineffective in the ninth, give up a pair of two-out RBI singles, and only getting out of it when Alexi was caught stealing second.

Athletics (Anderson, +142) @ Rangers (McCarthy)- TEX 14, OAK 1

Brett Anderson falls to 2-5 on the year, which is actually better than my record wagering on him (1-5). He's now allowed 10 homers in 47.1 innings, while recording only 27 strikeouts. McCarthy managed to hold the A's to one run through six despite a 2:3 K:BB, probably because Oakland's offense is terrible. Nelson Cruz crushed his 14th homer of the year, and is now hitting .299/.357/.599.

Mariners (Felix, -106) vs. Angels (Palmer)- SEA 4, LAA 3

Thank you, Jose Lopez.

Giants (Zito, +145) vs. Cardinals (Carpenter)- STL 6, SFG 2

Carpenter was excellent again, although he did allow four extra base hits in six innings. The Giants led 2-1 after six, but then things fell apart, with Zito running out of gas and Sergio Romo and Justin Miller struggling through the last couple innings. Pujols went deep twice to raise his season line to .329/.460/.671.

Bases Roundup: 5/29

2009-05-30T00:50:00.003-04:00

Astros (Moehler, +131) @ Pirates (Ohlendorf)- HOU 6, PIT 1

It's kind of nice when things work out. I mean I totally expected Moehler, he of the 8.31 ERA (4.62 QERA though) to throw a complete game, I just figured he'd give up two runs rather than one. The big shock here was Houston's offensive explosion; somebody named Edwin Maysonet got what I believe were his first three extra base hits in the majors, and racked up nine total bases on the night.

Orioles (Bergesen, -111) vs. Tigers (Willis)- BAL 7, DET 2

That might be the end of Dontrelle in the rotation. He had the one nice start, but has really struggled otherwise, with a 5:8 K:BB in his other three outings. Although it looks like Bonderman is still only hitting 90 in AAA, and they want to get him up to 92-93 before calling him up. Luke Scott has been dominant since coming off the DL; Friday night he hit his fourth and fifth homers in just three games. Oh, and Wieters went 0-4. I don't want to talk about it.

Nationals (Detwiler, +159) @ Phillies (Happ)- PHI 5, WAS 4

I'm not entirely sure why they pulled Detwiler after 68 pitches; they were excited to get to the bullpen, I guess. And the relievers actually pitched well, with five of them combining to throw five shutout innings. Happ was mediocre, and the Nats were within one when Lidge entered in the ninth. I would complain about some of the calls the Philadelphia closer was getting, but Dibble was so unbearable with his bitching on MASN that I'm not going to go there. If there's one good thing coming from Washington's 13-34 start, it's that that clown has had to suffer through it all.

Indians (Lee, -115) vs. Yankees (Pettitte)- NYY 3, CLE 1

Pettitte had absolutely nothing, not managing an out in the sixth while walking five and striking out just one. But the Indians could not capitalize, going 0/7 w/RISP and leaving 11 guys on base while constantly getting themselves out after Pettitte fell behind in the count. Sizemore (whose elbow is definitely not right) is now hitting .223/.310/.406.

Athletics (E. Gonzalez, +149) @ Rangers (Feldman)- TEX 5, OAK 2

At least I missed out on Game 1; the A's are awful. Both starters were pretty much garbage, but Feldman somehow only allowed two runs in six innings. His ERA is now under four, so he'll be making another appearance on the blog next week. Orlando Cabrera is now hitting .240/.278/.297. That is just wonderful.

ATL/ARI Over 9 (Jurrjens/Garland, -122)- ATL 10, ARI 6

Up to 54% on totals; I've got a good felling about this (not really). This one went over in the top of the third, because Jon Garland is not good at pitching (2.2IP, 9H, 9R, 3BB, 1K, 1HR). Jurrjens didn't have much either, surrendering five runs in as many innings. I guess those "new-fangled stats" are kind of important after all? TJU was 0/4 with a walk, sadly. Not a good day for prodigies.

Bases Roundup: 5/28

2009-05-29T11:00:00.000-04:00

Nats off day + Rockies off day = VTVT winning day

Orioles (Hernandez, -130) vs. Tigers (Galarraga)- BAL 5, DET 1

Hernandez didn't do a whole lot right, but somehow managed to hold Detroit's offense down into the sixth. He even struck Miggy out twice, which must've been some kind of glitch. On a related note, if you think Friday night's line (BAL -121) seems ridiculous, you're obviously forgetting something very important.

D'Backs (Haren, -116) vs. Braves (Lowe)- ARI 5, ATL 2

It's almost like Haren's 0-3 record to start the year wasn't indicative of his actual talent level. He was awesome once again, striking out eight over as many innings. Lowe had a strange line, with only two Ks in seven innings, and not as many ground balls as usual. That led to 10 hits, and a Arizona rally (a rare thing indeed) in the fourth, which was partially aided by a Kelly Johnson error. TJU: 3/4 with three singles, now hitting .346/.415/.636. They gave him a $6.1MM bonus to sign; he's going to double that in '09 value before the end of June.

Bases Roundup: 5/27

2009-05-28T18:00:00.003-04:00

Rockies (Ubaldo, -135) vs. Dodger (Kershaw)- LAD 8, COL 6

This is sort of inevitable, but it's rather amusing that the two teams I wager on most frequently are the 29th and 30th most profitable teams in baseball. It's kind of unfair to lump the Rockies in with Washington, who have been nearly twice as costly, but I'm doing it anyway. Colorado's bullpen gave up five runs in the seventh, and Juan Pierre (.407/.470/.542) played a key part in the rally; that's all I need to know, really. Ubaldo's record drops to 3-6, although the peripherals (53:26 K:BB, 2HR in 59.2IP) remain solid.

Marlins (Badenhop, +193) @ Phillies (Myers)- FLA 6, PHI 2

Always nice when the opposing starter has "fraying to the labrum in his right hip". I guess that causes you to leave the ball up in the zone, because Myers has now give up an outrageous 17 homers in 63.2 innings after Uggla and Ross took him deep on Wednesday evening. Badenhop was surprisingly effective in his first start of the year, surrendering one run in five innings of work. Bonifacio was 0/5, and has hit .199/.246/.223 over his last 180 PAs.

Nationals (Zimmermann, +193) @ Mets (Johan)- NYM 7, WAS 4

I still don't think Murphy's "two-run homer" in the sixth was out -- and I really don't think the umps had enough evidence to overturn it, unless they had an angle that SNY didn't -- but it's probably fair to assume that Washington would have lost anyway. Johan had a very strange line, with a 11:6 K:BB in six very long innings (120 pitches). Fortunately for the Mets, they have a real bullpen this season, which held the Nats scoreless over the final three frames while striking out four. Two Ns' ERA is now over six despite 47 strikeouts and 14 walks in 46 innings, his next start may have to be a double.

Bases Roundup: 5/26

2009-05-27T23:10:00.002-04:00

Vote Miggy.

FLA/PHI Under 10 (Miller/Blanton, EV)- PHI 5, FLA 3

This was one hit away from being a complete disaster. The Phillies were up 5-0 going into the ninth, so they figured they'd just throw Durbin out there and he'd finish it off. Two walks, a single, and a Ryan Howard throwing error (an ugly one at that) later, Lidge was in the game, with the tying run on deck. He walked Bonifacio, but got Hermida to ground out and then struck out Helms to end it. Blanton pitched oddly well, with 11 Ks over seven shutout frames.

Orioles (Berken, +112) vs. Blue Jays (Romero)- BAL 7, TOR 2

Romero finally got hit a little, giving up homers to Huff, Jones, and Reimold. Reimold now has four homers in 49 ABs; he hasn't been getting on base, but his minor league numbers suggest that will change. Switch out Zaun (.214/.323/.313) for Wieters, as they'll be doing on Friday, and that's a pretty intimidating lineup. Not that it'll make much of a difference with the state of their rotation, but at least they got Eaton out of there.

Indians (Pavano, +118) vs. Rays (Garza)- CLE 5, TBR 1

Pavano is amazing. 7IP, 4H, 1R, 2BB, 6K, with the only damage coming on a Carlos Pena solo shot in the seventh, his 16th. Garza wasn't bad at all, but three homers did him in, particularly a two-run shot by DeRosa in the sixth.

Nationals (Stammen, +133) @ Mets (Livan)- NYM 6, WAS 1

Well that's embarrassing. Livan went the distance, needing 127 pitches to do so. He did a great job of keeping the ball on the ground, with a 2:1 GB:FB ratio that helped him induce three double plays. Stammen was not very good (better than Cabrera at least), but the real problem was Bergmann, who didn't record an out in the seventh prior to serving up a three-run homer to Sheffield.

Rockies (Cook, -145) vs. Dodgers (Milton)- LAD 7, COL 1

The Rockies certainly haven't caught up to the Nationals in terms of how costly they've been to my record, but they're getting there. The problem is that, unlike the Nats, they're favored pretty often, which makes each lost even more costly. Cook was the problem here; after shutting out the Braves in his last start he gave up five runs in six. The 2:3 K:BB wasn't pretty, but he did get an unbelievable number of ground balls (16, against just one fly out). Eric Milton pitched five solid innings, which hopefully won't continue.

D'Backs (Scherzer, -154) vs. Padres (Correia)- ARI 6, SDP 5

Finally, San Diego loses. Scherzer was fantastic, striking out 10 while not issuing a walk in seven innings. The bullpen was not quite as effective, with Slaten, Vasquez and Gutierrez allowing the Padres to put the tying run on second with nobody out in the ninth. But Gutierrez got Hairston to ground into a huge double play, and Kouzmanoff to fly out to center to preserve the victory. Well, for some people at least.

White Sox (Colon, +175) @ Angels (Saunders)- CHW 4, LAA 2

If the Angels had scored a few more runs I'd be cursing Saunders in this space, since he had his usual smoke and mirrors outing; 6.2IP, 3R, 3BB, 4K, 2HR. But Bartolo threw surprisingly well, pitching into the seventh and only allowing one run. Abreu's seventh inning homer was actually his first of the year, and his OBP (.414) continues to be higher than his SLG (.408).

Bases Roundup: 5/25

2009-05-27T21:18:00.006-04:00

Orioles (Guthrie, -103) vs. Blue Jays (Tallet)- BAL 4, TOR 1

Fading Toronto has gone rather well recently, I'd say. Guthrie pitched very well against the suddenly anemic Jays offense, allowing one run over seven to get his ERA under five.

BOS/MIN Under 9 (Penny/Liriano, +103)- BOS 6, MIN 5

Watching this was a mistake. It was 5-3 in the eighth, when Jeff Bailey hit a solo shot to put the Sox ahead by three. So it was looking like a push, until Papelbon gave up a single to Kubel in the ninth, which mean Mauer would bat; that ended with the ball going over the fence, as usual. There are some serious concerns about Boston's closer, who has seen a huge jump in his walk rate to 4.7 BB/9, which is over double his career average. It was unfortunate that we even got to that point, as Liriano had great peripherals -- 4IP, 0BB, 7K, 0HR -- yet gave up five runs becuase of a .733 BABiP.

Rockies (de la Rosa, -132) vs. Dodgers (Stults)- LAD 16, COL 6

Colorado provided a nice tease, pulling to within one after six, but they never win so I didn't really got too excited. That's a good thing, too, because they proceeded to give up eight runs in the seventh, with a combination of utter incompetence from Grilli and Embree. Juan Pierre went 2/6 with a triple, raising his BA to .385. Whatever.

SDP/ARI Over 9 (Gaudin/Davis, +107)- SDP 9, ARI 7

Overs are fun; this was over in the eighth, when the Padres were mounting their big comeback (it was 7-1 D'Backs after six). TJU went 2/4 with a double, and is now hitting .335/.408/.633 on the year. He turns 22 in August. Scary, really.

Indians (Carmona, +104) vs. Rays (Price)- CLE 11, TBR 10

Yes.

Nationals (Lannan, +152) @ Mets (Maine)- NYM 5, WAS 2

It's impressive that even as things start to turn around for this season overall (fingers crossed), the Nats and Rockies continue to lose every single night. Lannnan's K:BB was 0:4, which would've been great if it was flipped. The Nats got the tying run to the plate against K-Rod in the ninth, but for the wrong part of the lineup, as Kearns struck out and Harris popped out to second.

White Sox (Danks, +143) @ Angels (Santana)- CHW 17, LAA 3

Nice game for the Pythag. Santana got absolutely destroyed, and then Rafael Rodriguez came in and wasn't a whole lot better; the White Sox led 13-3 after four. What's really impressive is that Chicago also stranded 12 guys on base, which will happen when you bang out 24 hits and draw four walks. Oh, and Speier hit Podsednik, so there you go, 29 baserunners.

Three Percent of SIA Customers Are Idiots

2009-05-27T16:15:00.002-04:00

Bases Recap: Week 7

2009-05-26T12:50:00.001-04:00

Week 7: 13-17-0, -2.099x

YTD: 96-116-2, -7.917x
YTD Sides: 78-99, -9.684x
YTD Totals: 18-17-2, +1.767x

Another rough week for sides. Things were really looking bad before Sunday's 4-0, +4.36x.

YTD Pythag: .471 W%, +6.811x

I wish I wasn't keeping track of this, it's just annoying. I should be doing better than I am. Well yeah, no stuff.

Percentage of Matchbook plays offered (rather than accepted): 86%
Units lost if every play had been accepted: 1.246 (projects to 4.628 over a full year)

I was bad with this last week (went down from 88% to 86%). Probably won't be the last time.

Worst Loss of Week 7:

Based on lat week's voting, the three WLOTY nominees over the seasons' first three weeks were "Morrow Walks the World" (Week 1), "Hermida Abuses Nats Bullpen" (Week 2), and "GMAFB, Beimel" (Week 6), with the Mariners loss leading the way.

Bases Roundup: 5/24

2009-05-25T20:09:00.003-04:00

Rockies (Hammel, +145) @ Tigers (Willis)- COL 3, DET 1

So yeah, let's not hand the Cy Young over to Dontrelle just yet. He still has just a 9:8 K:BB in three starts, and isn't exactly lighting up the radar gun. Hammel was not great either, but managed his way through six innings. On a vaguely related note, during a Tigers game this weekend there was a poll regarding who is the most feared hitter on the team. Magglio beat out Miggy. I laughed.

Pirates (Karstens, +195) @ White Sox (Buehrle)- PIT 4, CHW 3

The Pirates scored one run over the first 25 innings of this series, but woke up in the last couple frames of the finale. Buehrle somehow held them to a single run over seven innings despite allowing 12 hits; who knows. Then Dotel served up a solo homer to Hinske in the eighth to make it 3-2, and Jenks allowed three hits, including a Jack Wilson HR, in the ninth to blow it. Despite Sunday's performance, the early '09 returns on Chicago's closer have been positive: his K rate is back to '07 levels, reversing a concerning trend, and he's throwing nearly as hard as he did three years ago.

Padres (Young, +102) vs. Cubs (Lilly)- SDP 7, CHC 2

San Diego's SP came up in the fifth with the bases loaded and one out and knocked a two-run single to center. It's somewhat insane to let your pitcher hit there, but this time it worked out and the Padres never looked back. This was the Padres' ninth consecutive win; clearly, that means Bud Black is a brilliant manager.

Twins (Baker, -132) vs. Brewers (Bush)- MIN 6, MIL 3

Welcome to 2009, Scott Baker: 8.1IP, 7H, 3R, 0BB, 6K. The HRs continue to be an issue (two of them on Sunday night), but he managed to get by with a similarly low GB rate in '07 and '08. Dave Bush pitched as Dave Bush should be expected to, walking four and giving up homers to Mauer and Crede in 6.2 innings of work.

Bases Roundup: 5/23

2009-05-25T19:35:00.002-04:00

Missed the evening slate on Saturday because I was at the car dealership for far longer than expected. Oh well.

Royals (Hochevar, +153) @ Cardinals (Lohse)- STL 5, KCR 0

Lohse totally shut down the Kansas City offense, which wasn't terribly surprising. Hochevar has been really good at AAA this season, but it hasn't translated into success with the big club; in 11.2 innings, he's walked seven while striking out just three. Kansas City has lost each of the last 10 games that Mike Aviles has appeared in.

Astros (Moehler, +109) vs. Rangers (Feldman)- TEX 6, HOU 3

Both starters actually pitched quite well, aside from the five homers they combined to allow that is. The big blow was a three-run shot off Nelson Cruz's bat in the fourth; he also homered in the sixth, his 11th of the year. Brian Moehler's ERA now sits at 8.31, despite a K:BB ratio of nearly 3:1.

Go Nats

2009-05-25T12:50:00.002-04:00

via THT

So Helpful

2009-05-23T10:20:00.001-04:00

(Click to enlarge)

Bases Roundup: 5/22

2009-05-23T00:27:00.006-04:00

Nationals (Zimmermann, -103) vs. Orioles (Hill)- BAL 4, WAS 2

One could complain about another bullpen loss, but in reality the Washington relievers allowed two runs over five innings. Two N's was quite good as well, striking out seven in as many innings and only giving up two runs himself. The blame here lies with the offense for a change, since a Ryan Zimmerman two-run homer in the fourth accounted for the entirety of their scoring. And they didn't even pose a threat in the late innings, not advancing a runner to second base after the sixth. The Orioles won it in the 12th on an Adam Jones two-out, two-run double off Kip Wells.

Rockies (Ubaldo, +137) @ Tigers (Porcello)- DET 4, COL 3

Porcello continues to kind of get by with smoke and mirrors (3:2 K:BB), although he obviously has good stuff and does keep the ball on the ground (9:4 GB:FB in this one). And that's unfortunate, since Ubaldo pitched quite well, with seven Ks against just one walk over seven. The Rockies made it interesting in the ninth with a Seth Smith 2R HR, then put runners on the corners with two down, but Dexter Fowler struck out swinging to end it.

Braves (Kawakami, +152) vs. Blue Jays (Halladay)- ATL 1, TOR 0

I know the Blue Jays' offense isn't nearly as good as they've shown over the first quarter of the year, but I still can't believe Kawakami put up this line against them: 8IP, 3H, 0R, 0BB, 7K. Halladay matched him through seven; I'm not sure why he was pulled so soon, he was only at 95 pitches. I'm not complaining though, especially since Carlson immediately gave up a double to Matt Diaz, who came around to score on a Casey Kotchman sac fly. Toronto got Aaron Hill to third with two down in the ninth, but Prado made an extremely impressive play coming across the infield on a Wells grounder for the third out. Being at the Yankee game and only casually following these on the out of town scoreboard saved me an incredible amount of stress tonight.

Padres (Peavy, -138) vs. Cubs (Zambrano)- SDP 4, CHC 0

Peavy struck out 10 over six innings of work, and the Padres pitchers were just getting started; they K'd six more Cubs over the final third of the game. Adrian Gonzalez continued to be a monster, with his 16th HR, raising his SLG to .605. Mujica ran into some trouble in the ninth, putting a couple guys on, but Heath Bell came in as soon as it became a save situation and eventually got Lee to pop out into foul ground for the W. Seriously, these four games were ridiculous. Even in the 4-0 one, the tying run was at the plate in the ninth

Bases Roundup: 5/21

2009-05-22T02:00:00.003-04:00

Indians (Pavano, +193) @ Royals (Greinke)- CLE 8, KCR 3

Pavano is my favorite. And his BABiP is .370, allowing his ERA to stay absurdly high at 6.10 despite excellent peripherals, so we get to keep siding with him. Greinke pitched well, but eight strikeouts and two walks got his pitch count up to 103 after six innings, which mean Horacio Ramirez time, which is always good news. Victor Martinez went 2/5 and did not raise his batting average. That's right.

Athletics (Braden, +183) @ Rays (Garza)- TBR 6, OAK 5

Worst loss of Week 7 nominee #2. Braden and Garza both pitched well, and the A's rallied late (!), scoring one in the eighth and two in the ninth to go up 5-3. But Andrew Bailey and Ziegler couldn't do anything right in the ninth. The former gave up a two-run homer to Ben Zobrist with one out, his eighth of the year. Then Ziegler came in and didn't even manage an out before giving up the the game winner.

Nationals (Stammen, -118) vs. Pirates (Snell)- WAS 5, PIT 4

Stammen was surprisingly competent, but the real story was three shutout innings from Tavarez and Hanrahan. That was made possible by the Nats scoring two runs on back-to-back-to-back-to-back singles in the bottom of the eighth. Zimmerman's streak may be over, but he's still hitting .353/.409/.607.

BAL/NYY Under 10.5 (Eaton/Chamberlain, +112)- NYY 7, BAL 4

Unfortunate. Joba only recorded two outs, leaving a couple batters after an Adam Jones comebacker hit him in the knee. Aceves pitched well immediately after, but unfortunately they also needed to squeeze a couple innings out of Albaladejo, who gave up four runs, including an ultimately meaningless Nick Markakis solo shot in the seventh that put it a half run over the number. Eaton was bad, even for Adam Eaton, with three BBs, one K and two HRs allowed in 4.2 ugly innings.

Astros (Oswalt, -141) vs. Brewers (Suppan)- MIL 4, HOU 3

Milwaukee won this in the seventh thanks to an incredibly annoying rally that consisted of a single, a walk, a HBP, a single, and a two out Corey Hart double to put the Brewers ahead. Oswalt was taken out right after the walk; I'm not sure why they did that, since there was no way Fulchino was facing Fielder, Oswalt had been pitching quite well, and they both throw with their right arm. The Astros got the first two guys on against Hoffman in the ninth, but never made anything of it after a poor bunt by Matsui, a disgusting Michael Bourn AB (K), and then Keppinger grounding into an FC with two outs.

Mariners (Bedard, -113) vs. Angels (Saunders)- LAA 3, SEA 0

Joe Saunders: 7IP, 4H, 0R, 3BB, 3K. So let's see, that's 22 balls in play and four hits, so a .182 BABiP. And a 100% strand rate. And 0/7 HR/FB. Whatever. Bedard was good except for solo homers served up to Rivera and Matthews. And Morrow actually threw a couple solid innings out of the pen, striking out three while not allowing a baserunner.

Bases Roundup: 5/20

2009-05-20T13:10:00.002-04:00

SftC live chat over at Rex's site tomorrow.

Nationals (Lannan, -124, double) vs. Pirates (Maholm)- PIT 2, WAS 1

Maholm pitched much better than I expected, but Lannan matched him with seven strong innings. That meant the game was turned over to the bullpens and, well, flip. Villone got through the eighth; he's been great, although that will come crashing down soon since he doesn't K anybody. Hanrahan loaded the bases with one out in the ninth (he would), but it looked like he might get out of it* after Moss tapped into a fielders choice and they got Young at home. Alas, it was not to be, with Hanrahan throwing a wild pitch while facing LaRoche, which allowed the go-ahead, and eventual winning, run to cross the plate.

Athletics (Anderson, +166) @ Rays (Kazmir)- OAK 7, TBR 6

Anderson gave up homers to Pena and Aybar, but was otherwise excellent for a change. Kazmir's issues are getting serious, as we're approaching June and his ERA is approaching eight. The Rays had one on with two out against Ziegler in the ninth when Upton hit what appeared to be a gapper into left center. But Sweeney somehow tracked it down, making an impressive diving catch to win it.

Rockies (de la Rosa, +153) @ Braves (Vazquez)- ATL 12, COL 4

Fading Vazquez probably wasn't the greatest idea I've ever had, but de la Rosa had been legitimately good despite his 0-3 record (the low ERA was a concern, certainly). The key word in that sentence is "had", as dlR walked five against just one K while not making it out of the fourth. Belisle "relieved" him and poured gas on the fire, allowing the Braves to end up scoring nine runs in the fourth, and that was that.

*- Not really.

Bases Roundup: 5/19

2009-05-19T23:19:00.004-04:00

Finally caught up. Don't forget to vote in the poll.

TEX/DET Under 11 (McCarthy/Wills, +109)- DET 4, TEX 0

This went precisely as I had planned, with Willis essentially dominating into the seventh. The Rangers only managed one hit off five Detroit pitchers, which is pretty remarkable. Even in this low-scoring affair, Miggy was 2/3 with an RBI, and is up to .381/.452/.612 on the year. He has to be the favorite for AL MVP at this point, right?

Athletics (Outman, +182) @ Rays (Shields)- OAK 4, TBR 1

Runman was tremendous, with a 6:1 K:BB over six scoreless frames. The bullpen was great as well, shutting out the Rays for four more innings after that, but unfortunately Shields and Co. were matching them zero for zero. The A's finally broke the ice with a Holliday three-run jack in the 11th, and Springer retired the side after an Aybar HR in the bottom half to end it.

Rockies (Hammel, +174) @ Braves (Jurrjens)- ATL 8, COL 1

Jon Heyman loves Jair Jurrjens; I do not share this affinity. His "new-fangled stats" were actually quite good in this one, with eight Ks over seven excellent innings. I doubt that'll be enough to bring his QERA under five though. Kotchman had a nice game, with two doubles, a single, and three RBIs, and is now hitting .301/.363/.459 on the year.

Indians (Lee, -127) @ Royals (Bannister)- KCR 6, CLE 5
CLE/KCR Over 8.5 (Lee/Bannister, +104)- KCR 6, CLE 5

It's a very, very good thing that I played the under. The starters pitched as expected/hoped, with Lee going eight strong innings and Bannister giving up five over six. It was 5-2 Indians going into the ninth, so a split had been clinched, with 2-0 looking unlikely. The odds of a sweep went up dramatically when Jacobs and Teahen went back-to-back with one out, but all that really meant was that Wood just didn't have it tonight and the Indians were doomed. He proceeded to walk Olivo(!), and then grooved a fastball to DeJesus, who deposited it into the gap for a triple. At that point the upcoming result was obvious, and Bloomquist hit a fly ball deep enough to score DeJesus from third. WLOW7 candidate I suppose, but winning the total made it a whole lot less painful, at least from the gambling side of things.

Twins (Baker, +117) @ White Sox (Buehrle)- CHW 6, MIN 2

Everyone keeps talking about how Randy Johnson may be the last 300 game winner, but at this rate Buehrle is going to get there by next June. He gave up a homer in this one, along with seven other hits, yet somehow managed to limit the Twins to one earned run. Whatever. On the other hand, I keep waiting for Baker to be good, and it keeps not happening; 5IP, 5H, 4R, 4BB, 4K, 2HR is a pretty ugly line. I just wish he would've given up one more to get that ERA over seven. Maybe next time.

Mariners (Felix, -145) vs. Angels (Palmer)- LAA 6, SEA 5

The Matt Palmer portion of this game went as planned; he allowed five runs over five less than stellar innings. Unfortunately the good news stops there. Felix picked a bad night to struggle, allowing nine singles, two doubles, and three walks over 5.2 innings. It was 6-5 after six, and that (obviously) was the end of the scoring, with Bulger, Shields, and Fuentes combining for four perfect innings out of the bullpen. I'm beginning to think the Mariners might not win the division.

Bases Roundup: 5/18

2009-05-19T23:11:00.001-04:00

White Sox (Richard, +150) @ Blue Jays (Richmond)- TOR 3, CHW 2

Richmond struck out a guy per inning over seven scoreless frames, but before anyone gets too excited and starts proclaiming that he's "for real", consider the opponent. Thome did provide a tease with a game-tying 2R HR in the eighth, but the Jays came right back in the bottom of the inning with a run off Dotel, the first one he's allowed all year.

Nationals (Detwiler, -110) vs. Pirates (Ohlendorf)- PIT 12, WAS 7

We are well past the point of absurdity at this juncture. Detwiler was fine, with six Ks and no walks over five, giving up three runs. He then turned it over to the bullpen, which was his first mistake, as they gave up nine runs over the last four innings. Ohlendorf had his worst start of the year, but backed into the win after Pittsburgh's five-run fifth.

Athletics (Gallagher, +128) @ Rays (Niemann)- TBR 13, OAK 4

Almost. Gallagher got absolutely destroyed, walking five and giving up nine runs while not making it out of the third. Niemann, who had a 18:21 K:BB coming in, was respectable, with no walks but two HRs allowed in eight innings.

Rockies (Marquis, +177) @ Braves (Lowe)- COL 5, ATL 1

Marquis somehow gave up only one run over eight, despite being typically medicore; he did get a bunch of GBs. Not as many as Lowe, but let's keep our expectations realistic here. This was actually much closer than the score indicates -- Colorado scored two runs over the first eight innings on a ground out and a fielders choice, before getting three in the ninth off O'Flaherty and Moylan.

Bases Recap: Week 6

2009-05-19T18:00:00.001-04:00

Week 6: 16-17-1, +0.604x

YTD: 83-99-2, -5.818x
YTD Sides: 67-83, -6.460x
YTD Totals: 16-16-2, +0.642x

Don't worry. When I start hitting totals at a 66% clip after the ASB, the sides won't even matter.

YTD Pythag: .481 W%, +8.032x

Slightly outplayed the Pythag this week. Had to happen eventually.

Percentage of Matchbook plays offered (rather than accepted): 88%
Units lost if every play had been accepted: 1.106 (projects to 4.793 over a full year)

It's going to really have been worth it if this is the difference between a winning year and the season ending in the red. Well, it'll have been worth it either way, but you know what I mean.

Worst Loss of Week 6:

Totally disgusting. To recap:

WLOW1: Morrow Walks the World
WLOW2: Hermida Abuses Nats Bullpen
WLOW3: 0.5 R L, 3/24 w/RISP
WLOW4: 0.5 R L, 2/19 w/RISP
WLOW5: Vaguely Frustrating Braves Game
WLOW6: GMAFB, Beimel

If you're reading this via RSS, this is where you open it in your browser to vote:

Bases Roundup: 5/17

2009-05-19T14:00:00.000-04:00

Rockies (Ubaldo, -109) @ Pirates (Duke)- PIT 11, COL 4

Ubaldo was tremendous, holding the Pirates to one run in six innings of work. Unfortunately the same can not be said for the bullpen trio of Daley, Embree, and Corpas. The first 11 PIT hitters reached base in the seventh, with the Rockies not recording an out until Eric Hinske decided to get himself thrown out trying to advance to third on a single. Giving up 10 runs in an inning is not conducive to winning, I'm pretty sure.

Nationals (Two N's, -108) vs. Phillies (Park)- PHI 8, WAS 6

At least I stayed away from the under. Zimmermann wasn't very good, and the Nationals' bullpen did their normal thing, giving away a 6-5 lead in the eighth. I don't feel like digging up the video, but in that eighth inning there was a bunt down the third base line, which both Zimmerman and Colome went for. The latter picked it up, but One N decided to simulate throwing to first anyway. This totally confused Anderson Hernandez, who stood there looking lost as Colome's throw caromed into right field. Good times.

CIN/SDP Under 7.5 (Arroyo/Peavy, -126)- SDP 3, CIN 1

This was a rather low number considering Arroyo came into the game with a 7.02 ERA. He was okay, but Peavy was dominant, allowing just four baserunners in nine innings. I suppose with the combination of San Diego's ballpark/offense and Peavy on the hill, it's going to take a lot for the total to be much over eight.

Bases Roundup: 5/16

2009-05-19T10:00:00.000-04:00

Nationals (Olsen, +121) vs. Philles (Myers)- PHI 8, WAS 5
PHI/WAS Under 10 (Myers/Olsen, +116)- PHI 8, WAS 5

Scott Olsen continues to fail me, this time giving up two homers to flipping Ibanez and one to Werth in five ineffective innings. Two runs in three innings was actually good for Mock, at least relative to his more recent exploits. Myers pitched pretty well, but of course Madson gave up three in the eighth to make sure I didn't even salvage a push on the under.

Indians (Pavano, +171) @ Rays (Garza)- TBR 4, CLE 2

Pavano totally outpitched Garza, who walked four against just three Ks in six innings. That didn't end up mattering too much though, as the Rays stole three bases off the Pavano/Shoppach battery, and stranded only six runners to the Indians' eight. This was not a particularly eventful game.

Giants (R. Johnson, +162) vs. Mets (Santana)- NYM 9, SFG 6

The BABiP in this game must've been off the charts; Santana and Johnson combined for 10 Ks, no walks, and only an Aaron Rowand homer in 11 innings, yet managed to give up 13 runs. It's particularly strange that Johan had by far his worst outing of the year, results-wise -- he had allowed just eight total runs over his first seven starts -- at home against the lowly Giants. But the Mets picked a good day to actually score some runs off him, as Johnson continues to crawl toward 300 wins. The towering lefty has been plagued by the long ball in '09, giving up 10 bombs in only 40.2 IP.

LAD/FLA Under 10 (Milton/Miller, +120)- FLA 6, LAD 3

Milton (on the hill for the first time since 5/8/2007) and Miller pitched about as well as you'd expect (which is: not) but each somehow limited the opponent to two runs. A Florida rally in the eighth put the total-tying run on second with two outs, but Coghlan flew to center to end the threat, and Lindstrom breezed through a 1-2-3 ninth to preserve victory for everyone involved.

Nationals (Cabrera, +113) vs. Phillies (A. Carpenter)- PHI 7, WAS 5

Daniel Cabrera is, pretty easily, the worst starting pitcher in baseball. His BB:K (have to reverse it for him) is approaching 2:1, and he's not particularly adept at keeping the ball on the ground. Sadly he's now "0-5, 5.95", and last time I checked is still in the WAS rotation, so he'll continue to make regular appearances on the blog. As was previously noted, wagering on Olsen and Cabrera in the same day was truly a dream come true. I would complain that they called the game in the sixth, but it's not like I don't know how that movie ends.

Padres (Geer, +132) vs. Reds (Volquez)- SDP 6, CIN 5
CIN/SDP Under 7.5 (Geer/Volquez, -111)- SDP 6, CIN 5

I watched from about the ninth to the 15th in this one, before giving up and going to sleep. It really is a good thing San Diego ended up winning, because Eckstein's antics in the 10th were absolutely infuriating. Geer was quite poor, but the Padres managed a run in the seventh and two in the eighth to tie it at five. Nick Hundley's homer in the 16th sent everyone home happy after five hours and fourteen minutes of non-stop excitement.

BOS/SEA Under 8.5 (Beckett/G. Olson, -111)- BOS 5, SEA 3

You probably could've gotten a pretty solid price on the under when it was 5-4 after 4.5 innings. Beckett settled down after that, and Boston's bullpen did their thing, but the real hero was Miguel Batista, who somehow managed three shutout winnings. After the start this day got off to, that was very much needed.

Bases Roundup: 5/15

2009-05-18T20:00:00.001-04:00

Getting there. At least these are game I actually remember following.

Athletics (Anderson, +140, double) @ Tigers (Jackson)- DET 14, OAK 1

To say Brett Anderson has been a disappointment; yeah, I think that'd be something of an understatement. 31.1 IP, 39 H, 29 R, 11 BB, 15 K. The worst part is that eight of those runs have been unearned, so his ERA isn't even that bad. It's still not pretty, at 6.03, but 8.33 would be preferable going forward. Meanwhile, it appears that Jackson's breakout may be legitimate, with his K:BB jumping to 3.7 from a career mark of 1.5. This is yet another situation where FIP doesn't really tell the whole story; that 3.28 is almost sure to come up when his HR/FB returns to his career level, but regardless he's faring a bit better than Matt Joyce.

MIN/NYY Under 10.5 (Liriano/Hughes, +111)- NYY 5, MIN 4

Walk off win #1 of three on the weekend for the Yankees, who are actually outplaying their Pythag for once. Liriano was extremely fortunate to allow just one run through six, as it's not often you give up a solo homer and nine additional baserunners (two singles, a double, and six walks) and manage to limit the opponent to a single run. Hughes was not very good either, seeing his 2009 K:BB move to 10:12.

CLE/TBR Under 9 (Reyes/Kazmir, +126)- TBR 8, CLE 7

This went over by the fourth inning, which was less than surprising. Kazmir has really struggled; his velocity is way down, as are the Ks, and his walk rate has risen to an unacceptable 5.4 BB/9. A 5.76 FIP in 41.1 innings, with a HR/FB taht isn't anything crazy, is definitely cause for concern. Also cause for concern: having Anthony Reyes in your rotation. Ugh.

BOS/SEA Under 9 (Lester/Jakubauskas, +116)- SEA 5, BOS 4

Friday was a day of ridiculously low totals, this one probably being the most absurd of the group. I get the Lester thing, he's just had terrible luck on balls in play (although he didn't pitch very well on Friday). But Jakubauskas has legitimately not been very good, with 3.8 K/9. Anyway, managed a push here despite the starters combining for nine runs allowed in 11.2 IP, so you can probably guess who gets the credit there.

Nationals (Lannan, +102) vs. Phillies (Blanton)- PHI 10, WAS 6

Harris doubled in two runs to tie it at six in the ninth, but they really needed Kearns to knock him in to win it there. He struck out, and that meant more of the Washington bullpen; Kip Wells eventually got knocked around in the 12th. Jesus Colome's ERA after this game was infinity; it has since descended to an entirely reasonable 20.25.

White Sox (Danks, +117) vs. Blue Jays (Cecil)- TOR 8, CHW 3

Nope. Cecil did not exactly dominate in this one, giving up homers to Konerko and Dye and striking out only three in six innings, but he's been legitimately good in three starts since being called up, with a K:BB of 15:4. Of course, his ERA is 1.80 and he plays for the flipping Blue Jays, so the fading of him will probably continue for the foreseeable future. Danks got knocked around, and is off to a slow start (2-3, 4.82) but his peripherals (3.75 QERA) suggest he'll be fine.

LAD/FLA Over 9 (Stults/Volstad, -105)- LAD 6, FLA 4

Caught a break here, with the Dodgers tacking on an insurance run in the ninth to put it over the number. Which was good, since the two starters combined to allow seven runs in 11 innings, so this game staying under would've been unfortunate.

Padres (Correia, +113) vs. Reds (Harang)- SDP 5, CIN 3

I'm not entirely sure how I always end up backing Kevin Correia, but that's been happening for almost a year now. He was okay, but San Diego needed a three-run rally consisting of four singles, a walk and a sac fly in the seventh to pull this one out.

Bases Roundup: 5/14

2009-05-18T15:00:00.000-04:00

Brewers (Bush, -104) vs. Marlins (Johnson)- MIL 5, FLA 3

Florida's regression continues, and particularly Josh Johnson's, who walked five in this one after issuing only six BBs in his first seven starts combined. Bush has gotten off to an interesting start, with a 36:10 K:BB ratio but eight HRs allowed in 47 innings. And he hasn't even been particularly unlucky with fly balls leaving the park; you're going to give up a lot of homers with a GB rate of just 34%.

Padres (Gaudin, +151) @ Cubs (Dempster)- CHC 11, SDP 3

Fail. Gaudin threw a one-hitter, but not in a good way, walking seven in 4.1 innings. Perdomo and Sanchez then both got rocked, as this one got out of hand in the middle innings. After being horribly overvalued for pretty much all of '08, Dempster has taken a big step back in '09, with both his ERA and FIP jumping up to the mid fours.

Pirates (Karstens, +118) vs. Cardinals (Boggs)- STL 5, PIT 1

Mitch Boggs: still not good, still costing me money. He put up an impressive 1:2 K:BB ratio over 4.1 innings in this one, and the Pirates got nine hits off him, yet only one run. Karstens was decent, but he's still only struck out 14 in 32 innings this year; his ERA will probably be in the fives all season.

Indians (Carmona, +153) @ Rays (Shields)- CLE 11, TBR 7

Typical Indians game, except this time they actually held on to a big lead. Carmona cruised threw five, but ran into trouble in the sixth. That's bound to happen eventually when you're walking as many guys as you strike out, which he's done for 30 starts now. Fortunately the offense had staked him to a 9-0 lead, led by Victor Martinez, who was 4/5 with two doubles and four RBIs.

Bases Roundup: 5/13

2009-05-18T11:00:00.001-04:00

I seriously doubt we'll see another +5.560x day this season.

Indians (Lee, -156) vs. White Sox (Buehrle)- CLE 4, CHW 0

However briefly, the Indians' lefty was back to his Cy Young form in this one, hurling seven scoreless innings with a 9:1 K:BB ratio. A good performance, to be sure, but he didn't exactly do it against the '27 Yankees; through Saturday the White Sox were averaging just four runs per game. Victor Martinez hit his seventh homer in this one, which is seven more that he had last year. I think it's safe to say that his elbow is feeling better.

Braves (Reyes, +126) @ Mets (Niese)- ATL 8, NYM 7

Once again, I'm writing about a starter who is no longer in the rotation, as Reyes was moved into the bullpen after this disaster, with the Braves calling up Kris Medlen (check out those '06 numbers out of the bullpen). Reyes' peripherals weren't terrible coming into this game, but then he walked three Mets while failing to strike out any of the 14 batters he faced. Luckily the Braves got to Niese, and their 'pen was excellent, giving up two runs in nine innings. Unlikely hero Martin Prado homered to put Atlanta up for good in the 12th.

Nationals (Martis, +125) @ Giants (Zito)- WAS 6, SFG 3

I don't know if there's ever been a 5-0 pitcher on an 11-21 team before (there probably has), but Martis has somehow managed that. It's not like he's been particularly dominant either, with a 21:17 K:BB in 41.2 innings. Zito pitched well until the seventh, when he ran into trouble against the top of the Washington lineup.

Pirates (Ohlendorf, +105) vs. Cardinals (Pineiro)- PIT 5, STL 2

Pineiro wasn't going to continue this charade of being good forever; he has now recored a whopping 14 strikeouts in 45.1 innings this year. He keeps the walks down and gets a bunch of ground balls, sure, but still. Ohlendorf was excellent, strangely enough, giving up just a Schumaker solo HR in six innings of work. The Pirates had five doubles off Pineiro, including two by Adam Laroche.

Padres (C. Young) @ Cubs (Lilly)- CHC 6, SDP 4
SDP/CHC Over 11.5 (Young/Lilly, +109, double)- CHC 6, SDP 4 (F/8)

This was a strange situation, with the rain coming after 7.5 innings. For the total, the cancellation was definitely +EV, since it's unlikely that two runs would've been scored before six more outs were recorded. It was bad for the side though, obviously, since while the Padres weren't likely to win, Gregg isn't great, and they certainly had more than a 0% chance of pulling it out. Weird situation for fantasy owners here, with Marmol getting his third save despite not pitching the ninth inning.

CIN/ARI Over 9 (Cueto/Augenstein, -118)- CIN 10, ARI 3

Augenstein helped us out here, giving up five runs in just 6.1 innings. Cueto was pretty mediocre, giving up homers to Parra and Ojeda to go along with a couple walks in seven innings. He's been good, but not nearly "4-1, 1.93" good, and is definitely a top fade candidate going forward. TJU stayed hot in this one, 2/3 with a double and a triple. After getting off to a slow start, TJU was hitting .310/.394/.595 through Saturday. He does not turn 22 until August. Probably no MVP this year, but it's bound to happen eventually.

Athletics (Outman, -112, double) vs. Royals (Bannister)- OAK 7, KCR 2

Bannister gave up a couple in the sixth after cruising through five, and then Jamey Wright struggled mightily in the seventh; a Mark Teahen error didn't help. That was a good combination, since it kept Bannister's ERA under two, which is rather absurd.

Bases Roundup: 5/12

2009-05-17T20:00:00.001-04:00

Yes, I'm really going to go through all of these. Not skipping the 11th, just didn't have any plays that day.

Indians (Sowers, -144) vs. White Sox (Richard)- CHW 7, CLE 4

Sowers has since been optioned to AAA, so as you can imagine that didn't go too well. Thome took him deep twice, and Nix added a solo shot in the third. Richard wasn't very good either -- he rarely is -- bu the CHW bullpen didn't allow a run after he got knocked out in the fourth.

Athletics (Cahill, -118) vs. Royals (Hochevar)- OAK 12, KCR 3

Didn't much matter in this one, with Hochevar giving up eight runs in two innings, but it's pretty ridiculous that Cahill's ERA after this one was only 3.69. In 39 innings he had walked 20 while striking out just 14, and allowed six homers. Even with the HR/FB (14.6%) regressed to something more reasonable his QERA was 6.53.

Nationals (Zimmermann, +129) vs. Giants (Cain)- SFG 9, WAS 7

Worst loss of Week 6 nominee #1. Good process, bad results for Two N's, who struck out eight against just two walks and kept the ball on the ground, but gave up five runs on six singles and a double. Even so, the Nats were up 7-6 with two outs and nobody on in the ninth. But Beimel couldn't get the last out, giving up a single and a walk before Pablo Sandoval sent everyone home with a bomb to left.

How The Mighty Have Fallen

2009-05-15T18:55:00.003-04:00

By the way, I'm going to try to get caught up on the recaps this weekend. Moving out, permanently, without a car, turned out to be extremely time consuming. Who knew?

Bases Recap: Week 5

2009-05-11T00:45:00.005-04:00

Week 5: 22-15-0, +8.027x

YTD: 67-82-1, -6.422x
YTD Sides: 57-69, -4.041x
YTD Totals: 10-13-1, -2.381x

Winning week! Thank God.

YTD Pythag: .498 W%, +8.995x

My Pythag last week was actually even better than the binary results.

Percentage of Matchbook plays offered (rather than accepted): 89%
Units lost if every play had been accepted: 0.899 (projects to 4.675 over a full year)

Worst Loss of Week 5:

That Braves game, I guess. That's not much to complain about though, it was a good week.

Bases Roundup: 5/10

2009-05-10T23:40:00.002-04:00

That's more like it: losing a little on sides, dominating on totals.

ATL/PHI Under 9.5 (Kawakami/Myers, +103)- ATL 4, PHI 2

Kawakami isn't terribly thrilling to watch (I've been unfortunate enough to see him live twice), but he's also not as bad as he was over his first few starts. And that showed this afternoon, as he struck out six (though working four) over six frames. Myers was a bit better, but Taschner came in and blew it in the seventh. It appears that Jimmy Rollins is not going to hit .400 in May. June, maybe?

NYY/BAL Under 9.5 (Chamberlain/Uehara)- NYY 5, BAL 3

Aside from throwing a perfect game, there's not much that would be better at shutting up the "Joba should be a reliever" crowd than struggling in the first and then dominating the rest of the way, as he's done in each of his last two outings. They'll find some way to spin it of course -- he's worse when he has to pace himself, or some such nonsense. My infatuation with Koji Uehara is finally looking at least vaguely intelligent: 6IP, 1R, 0BB, 5K, with the only damage coming on a solo shot by Teixeira in the first. Jim Johnson did not have quite as much success, giving up three in the ninth to take the L, but that's okay.

Rockies (Cook, -114) vs. Marlins (Volstad)- COL 3, FLA 2

I should get double credit for this one. Cook struggled with control, walking four, but got plenty of ground balls (11). The trio of Daley, Embree, and Street then pitched quite well over the last three innings, striking out three while allowing just one baserunner. Todd Helton tripled for the first time since he had two (!) on June 5, 2007.

LAD/SFG Over 8 (Lincecum/Weaver, +117)- SFG 7, LAD 5

These are the best; it was 4-4 after eight so victory was, for once, inevitable. Lincecum managed to allow four runs in six innings despite striking out eight against just one walk; a throwing error on what appears to be a pickoff attempt in the first didn't help. Jeff Weaver pitched as Jeff Weaver should, even against this lineup, struggling through five innings.

Nationals (Olsen, +154) @ D'Backs (Scherzer)- ARI 10, WAS 8

Scott Olsen and Logan Kensing are terrible, but the former's ERA now rests at 7.00, so see you next weekend against Philly, Scott. Dunn had a big game with two bombs and a single; he now, somewhat quietly, has 11 homers on the year. Ryan Zimmerman extended his hitting streak to 28 games with a single in the first.

Athletics (Braden, -109) vs. Blue Jays (Cecil)- TOR 5, OAK 0

I really almost passed this, just because Braden's ERA (2.50, vs. a QERA of 5.15) coming in was such a joke. But in the end I couldn't pass up the overvalued Jays at the undervalued A's, with Toronto throwing a guy who pitched great in his first start. Well, Cecil has now impressed in each of his first two outings, as he shut Oakland out for eight frames this afternoon. The three big offseason additions combined to go 0/12 for the A's, although I'm sure that's not the first time that's happened this year.

Happy Mother's Day, Ms. Wheatley

2009-05-10T12:02:00.002-04:00

Brewers to win NL Central, +900 (3x, BetUS)

+500 at SportsBetting, +650 at Bookmaker, +560/-900 at Matchbook. They started off 3-8, and have gone 15-5 since, the odds are still catching up to that. One back of the Cardinals, a half game up on the Reds, 1.5 ahead of the Cubs. I have them at 15.6% (+541) in the Vegas sim, a bit higher than that in the regular one. And that's not even considering Aramis' injury.

Bases Roundup: 5/9

2009-05-09T23:48:00.002-04:00

I went like 90 minutes without checking scores on my phone at one point this evening. Forget graduating from Emory, that is a flipping accomplishment.

PIT/NYM Over 9 (Maholm/Maine, +126)- NYM 10, PIT 1

Spots like this are always interesting. The idea here was clearly to fade Maholm, who came into the game 3-0 with a 2.97 ERA. But laying a ton of chalk with the Mets at home against the Pirates isn't generally a viable option, so that's where the total comes in. This didn't work out all that well on Friday in a similar situation with Baker, but today's result was much better, with Maholm giving up seven runs in five innings, and the game going over on a Jeremy Reed single in the eighth. Carlos Beltran is now hitting .378/.469/.604. Hall of Fame?

Athletics (Gallagher, -102) vs. Blue Jays (Tallet)- TOR 6, OAK 4

Well it would've been entirely realistic to expect Oakland to come through two days in a row. Brian Tallet was excellent over seven innings, striking out seven while allowing just one run. Giambi is finally waking up, he had two homers in this one. The A's rallied in the ninth against Downs, getting the lead down to two with the bases loaded and two down. Unfortunately that brought up Landon Powell, who harmlessly flew out to Alex Rios in foul territory on the first pitch.

Reds (Harang, +103) vs. Cardinals (Lohse)- CIN 8, STL 3

After seeing all his peripherals trend in the wrong direction last year, it would appear that the '06-'07 Aaron Harang is back, as he now sports a 2.93 ERA and 37:10 K:BB ratio in 46 innings this year. Fortunately, pre-2008 Kyle Lohse returned for this game as well, allowing seven runs over six innings. Jay Bruce hit his ninth (!) bomb of the year; the batting average doesn't jump off the page, but I'd say a .267/.351/.564 line is acceptable from the 22-year old future superstar.

Bases Roundup: 5/8

2009-05-08T23:51:00.004-04:00

I still can't believe Granderson made that catch.

NYY/BAL Under 9.5 (Sabathia/Guthrie, -101)- NYY 4, BAL 0

Sabathia was brilliant, striking out eight over nine four-hit innings, including the last three batters of the game. Guthrie, as you may have heard, gave up a 3R-HR on his first pitch to A-Guez, but settled down after that, going six strong innings before turning it over to the bullpen. Teixiera is hitting just .192, but he's still drawing walks and hitting for power, so it seems like it's just a matter of time before he get back on track.

Rays (Shields, -106) @ Red Sox (Penny)- BOS 7, TBR 3

Shields was cruising along until the sixth, when he gave up a single to Pedroia, walked Ortiz, and then grooved an 0-2 fastball to Bay for no apparent reason, which was promptly deposited over the monster. A double and a J.D. Drew bomb later, it was suddenly 5-3 and the Red Sox never looked back. Penny wasn't great, but he managed to pitch into the seventh, and Okajima, Ramirez, and Papelbon took it from there. It's possible that I'm the only person who didn't realize this, but Evan Longoria is on pace for 55 homers and 215 RBIs. I'll take the over.

Reds (Cueto, -111) vs. Cardinals (Pineiro)- CIN 6, STL 4

Yet another strong performance out of Cueto, who lowered his ERA to 1.59 by only allowing one run over seven. He wasn't exactly dominant, only striking out three and giving up a ton of fly balls, but we'll take it. Down two in the ninth, Thurston somehow got the idea that stealing second would be productive, and he was promptly gunned down by someone named Ryan Hanigan.

SEA/MIN Under 9 (Jakubauskus/Baker, +104)- MIN 11, SEA 0

The Twins as a side would've been an idea here, but that went out the window when someone steamed the hell out of them overnight. Baker, as expected, was right back to the Baker of '08, going seven with no walks and five Ks. Unfortunately, Jakubauskas was about as bad as you can be: 4.1IP, 9R, 3BB, 0K, 3HR. The nail in the coffon was a Brian Buscher three run bomb in the fifth as the first batter Miguel Batista faced to make the score 10-0.

TEX/CHW Under 11 (Harrison/Contreras, +101)- TEX 6, CHW 0

I have no idea what's going on with Matt Harrison vs. the White Sox lineup, but it's really been something else. In his first four starts of the year Harrison, as usual, was horrendous, with a 7.89 ERA and 9:12 K:BB ratio in 21.2 innings. But on Saturday he threw five shutout innings against Chicago, striking out three while not walking anyone. And he was even better tonight, allowing just four hits in a complete game shutout. You got me. Contreras was awful, not making it out of the fourth, but Carrasco, Richard and Broadway pitched surprisingly well in relief to keep this one under the number.

Athletics (Outman, +105, double) vs. Blue Jays (Richmond)- OAK 5, TOR 3

This was a strange one, with all eight runs scored in the second. Rod Barajas' two-run homer put Toronto up 3-0 in the top half, but the A's came back with a vengeance in the bottom of the inning, putting five on the board against the previously infallible Scott Richmond. Outman was pretty mediocre, only lasting 4.1 innings, but the bullpen trio of Wuertz, Springer and Bailey combined for 4.2 shutout innings, with a 4:0 K:BB ratio, to keep the score at 5-3.

Seriously, Chuck Meriwether?

2009-05-08T21:42:00.001-04:00